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Thread: tsptalk's Market Talk

  1. #3325

    Default Re: tsptalk's Market Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by weatherweenie View Post
    Depends on the premium service.
    I know I sound like a broken record because I mention this often, but one of the worst things someone can do is jump from one service to another because one is doing better at any given time. When one gets "hot", another may be cool. You're in the service that may be lagging so you jump in the hot one only to start having that one cool off while the one you left starts getting hot. You jump back, having missed that hot streak, and the cycle continues.

    As a contrarian investor, doing the opposite may actually be a better move... jump into a lagging service and out of a hot serve. Maybe you can catch both hot streaks.

    I don't know about that last one, but I've seen the top instance happen repeatedly.
    Tom
    Market Commentary | My Blog | TSP Talk Plus | |

    I am not a Registered Investment Advisor and this is not investment advice. Please do your own due diligence.

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  3. #3326

    Join Date
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    6,960

    Default Re: tsptalk's Market Talk

    Agreed.

    I was responding to James' statement that if he had followed the premium service he would have avoided a significant loss.

    Like anything with investing, that's not always going to be the case.

    Quote Originally Posted by tsptalk View Post
    I know I sound like a broken record because I mention this often, but one of the worst things someone can do is jump from one service to another because one is doing better at any given time. When one gets "hot", another may be cool. You're in the service that may be lagging so you jump in the hot one only to start having that one cool off while the one you left starts getting hot. You jump back, having missed that hot streak, and the cycle continues.

    As a contrarian investor, doing the opposite may actually be a better move... jump into a lagging service and out of a hot serve. Maybe you can catch both hot streaks.

    I don't know about that last one, but I've seen the top instance happen repeatedly.
    Weatherweenie's Account Talk
    Teddy Roosevelt: Patriotism means to stand by the country. It does not mean to stand by the president or any other public official. Retired on November 30, 2023 with 30+ years of service.

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  5. #3327

    Default Re: tsptalk's Market Talk

    Gotcha. I wasn't really directing that at you. You've been around a long time and have probably seen it all.
    Tom
    Market Commentary | My Blog | TSP Talk Plus | |

    I am not a Registered Investment Advisor and this is not investment advice. Please do your own due diligence.

  6.  
  7. #3328

    Default Re: tsptalk's Market Talk

    Lots of churning and burning near the 200-day EMA. The bears are still around, trying to go after the wounded bulls, but they've used a lot of energy so it's not as easy as it was for them last week. The rally sellers and dip buyers may due battle for a few days before one relents.

    Tom
    Market Commentary | My Blog | TSP Talk Plus | |

    I am not a Registered Investment Advisor and this is not investment advice. Please do your own due diligence.

  8.  
  9. #3329

    Default Re: tsptalk's Market Talk

    The financials continue to lag and are testing the 2018 lows again, but this area has held each time. Support appears firm since it held again, however a breakdown would probably get ugly so it must hold.

    Tom
    Market Commentary | My Blog | TSP Talk Plus | |

    I am not a Registered Investment Advisor and this is not investment advice. Please do your own due diligence.

  10.  
  11. #3330

    Default Re: tsptalk's Market Talk

    Yields are up slightly this morning on the strong economic data, but that pushes the 10-year toward 3.2% again where there is an open gap. Support near 3.15% looks solid.

    If this rally is going to hold the bulls probably don't want to see this move over 3.25% very quickly. A slow move higher would be better like a frog in a heating pot of water. Put it in a pot of boiling water and it reacts violently. Slowly heat the water and it acclimates.

    Tom
    Market Commentary | My Blog | TSP Talk Plus | |

    I am not a Registered Investment Advisor and this is not investment advice. Please do your own due diligence.


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  13. #3331

    Default Re: tsptalk's Market Talk

    As I mentioned in today's commentary, a quick retest of the lows is not uncommon, but right now there's a little battle going on in the S&P between the descending resistance line off the highs, and the new rising support line.

    Tom
    Market Commentary | My Blog | TSP Talk Plus | |

    I am not a Registered Investment Advisor and this is not investment advice. Please do your own due diligence.

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  15. #3332

    Default Re: tsptalk's Market Talk

    The financials are rallying again today. They've been lagging but the 2018 lows have held again.



    Tom
    Market Commentary | My Blog | TSP Talk Plus | |

    I am not a Registered Investment Advisor and this is not investment advice. Please do your own due diligence.

  16.  
  17. #3333

    Default Re: tsptalk's Market Talk

    The yield on the 10-year Treasury rallied back over 3.2% earlier, filled an open gap, then backed off. I don;t know if the spike in yields had anything to do with today's selling, but I'm sure it added to it. Let's see if the continue to back off. Obviously there can be some bond buying (yields falling) when stocks drop hard, so it may be a case of the tail wagging the dog.

    Tom
    Market Commentary | My Blog | TSP Talk Plus | |

    I am not a Registered Investment Advisor and this is not investment advice. Please do your own due diligence.

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  19. #3334

    Default Re: tsptalk's Market Talk

    The market is doing fine today, but the S&P is hitting and holding at some descending resistance so far.

    Tom
    Market Commentary | My Blog | TSP Talk Plus | |

    I am not a Registered Investment Advisor and this is not investment advice. Please do your own due diligence.

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  21. #3335

    Default Re: tsptalk's Market Talk

    The small caps and the Nasdaq are outperforming the large caps today, and the S-fund chart has so far been successful testing the lows earlier this month. At least for now, but today's rebound off the lows must hold.

    Tom
    Market Commentary | My Blog | TSP Talk Plus | |

    I am not a Registered Investment Advisor and this is not investment advice. Please do your own due diligence.

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  23. #3336

    Default Re: tsptalk's Market Talk

    The Transports are at the highs of the day after a successful test of the lows. Promising, but the day's not over yet.

    Tom
    Market Commentary | My Blog | TSP Talk Plus | |

    I am not a Registered Investment Advisor and this is not investment advice. Please do your own due diligence.

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