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Thread: tsptalk's Market Talk

  1. #5869

    Default Re: tsptalk's Market Talk

    This could be the the determining factor for the rally to continue or not - especially for the I-fund's recent leadership; The UUP chart is rebounding from this month's sell off. If the 50-day EMA and the descending resistance line now hold, the stock market, and the I-fund, should do fine.

    Tom
    Market Commentary | My Blog | TSP Talk Plus | |

    I am not a Registered Investment Advisor and this is not investment advice. Please do your own due diligence.

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  3. #5870

    Default Re: tsptalk's Market Talk

    The monthly CPI Report came inline with estimates while the Core CPI was a tick higher than expected. This sent stocks higher initially but they quickly erased all of those gains before the relentless dipped buyers showed up again.




    Bond yields are up on the data, but nothing that is concerning the stock market. Oil is up, gold, silver, and bitcoin are down as the dollar as the dollar was also up on the slightly stronger than expected CPI.

    Both the 10-year yield and the dollar moved back above some key moving averages on the news, although the dollar is well off its initial high and trying to fill the opening gap already.




    So far it looks like just another bounce off the 20-day EMA on the S&P 500, and the most recent pullbacks haven't even hit the average before the dip buyers showed up.




    Oh, and the demise of Nvidia has been greatly exaggerated. It's up 5% this morning after a 2-day pullback.
    Tom
    Market Commentary | My Blog | TSP Talk Plus | |

    I am not a Registered Investment Advisor and this is not investment advice. Please do your own due diligence.

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  5. #5871

    Default Re: tsptalk's Market Talk

    Today it looks like it's the small caps' turn to take the lead, despite yields moving high this morning. The S-fund is up 0.60% while the S&P is down slightly. Perhaps interest rates aren't the only thing on investors' mind these days?

    The 10-year yield gapped above its' 50-day EMA while the dollar is down just slightly but it is starting to look like a failure at the 50-day EMA. Maybe it's too close to call at this point. The I-fund is flat to start the day.




    It used to be Apple, but it's, as goes Nvidia, so goes the market. Nvidia is down 3% today weighing on the Nasdaq and S&P 500. Another down day here and it may start looking more toppy, although it is still above it's 20-day EMA so it's tough to get too bearish?

    Tom
    Market Commentary | My Blog | TSP Talk Plus | |

    I am not a Registered Investment Advisor and this is not investment advice. Please do your own due diligence.

  6.  
  7. #5872

    Default Re: tsptalk's Market Talk

    OK, so we got another hot inflation number in the PPI report this morning. While we have talked about the market being a little less concerned about interest rates lately, this morning's move in the 10-year yield is getting a little serious as it flirts with the previous high, and seems to be trending higher.




    The dollar is also up and this, combined with higher yields, is putting pressure on stocks to start the day, especially small caps. Gold and bitcoin are also down, while oil is up.
    Tom
    Market Commentary | My Blog | TSP Talk Plus | |

    I am not a Registered Investment Advisor and this is not investment advice. Please do your own due diligence.

  8.  
  9. #5873

    Default Re: tsptalk's Market Talk

    Small caps are up moderately this morning, otherwise it's another sell off after the CPI and PPI sent yields higher and investors running. Big tech is leading on the downside although Nvidia is up over 1%.

    The 10-year yield is up again and threatening making a higher high.




    Oil and gold are down slightly this morning, while bitcoin pulls back further from its recent peak.
    Tom
    Market Commentary | My Blog | TSP Talk Plus | |

    I am not a Registered Investment Advisor and this is not investment advice. Please do your own due diligence.

  10.  
  11. #5874

    Join Date
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    Default Re: tsptalk's Market Talk

    Gotta love it

    S&P 500, 3rd Friday's 15th day of March had the highest volume since the 3rd Friday's 15th day of the December.

    Looks like 15 of the last 27 OpsEx closed down, so a 42% win rate. I hate to go short, but it sure is tempting
    Retired, 100G (Paper Trading)_ BLOG: Stats for March, Stats for Q1, 2024 Stats

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  13. #5875

    Default Re: tsptalk's Market Talk

    The S&P 500 (C-fund) came running out of the gate this morning with Nvidia leading the way, and other AI news with Apple and Google working on a Gemini deal. With large cap techs taking center stage, it is once again the large cap C-fund getting the attention while the small caps and I-fund lag.

    Small caps are under the weight of higher yields again this morning. The dollar is also up slightly this morning, putting some pressure on the I-fund and keeping the gain limited so far.




    Oil is up this morning, gold is flat, and bitcoin is down.
    Tom
    Market Commentary | My Blog | TSP Talk Plus | |

    I am not a Registered Investment Advisor and this is not investment advice. Please do your own due diligence.

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