Thread: tsptalk's Market Talk

yes, I am almost certain the NYSE is closed.

Crazy to think that the VIX has even more room to fall, possibly under 10? has that ever happened?

1-18-13VIX.jpg

Originally Posted by sniper

Crazy to think that the VIX has even more room to fall, possibly under 10? has that ever happened?

Not since 94-95 as far as I can tell

I'm not sure I really know what the VIX is showing. I understand its a measure of volatility, but does anyone know how it's calibrated?

To me its saying there are a lot of folks who sold in December to lock in the lower capital gains rates, and now they have to buy back in on every dip.

I think the intermediate term VIX futures are showing less complacency knowing the debt ceiling is on deck.

Folks who are waiting for a buying dip may be terribly disappointed - 2013 may closely follow the pattern of 1998, when stocks rose more than 35% from the October lows through January 1999. This end of the outperformance in bonds likely means too much money chasing too few stocks and that means higher prices. We are set up to do work now in the 1474 - 1600 area. There is so much money still trapped out of stocks - this rally phase is about positioning and it will continue for perhaps months.

next week should be interesting, google (1/22) and apple (1/23) are reporting for 4Q

Originally Posted by Birchtree

Folks who are waiting for a buying dip may be terribly disappointed - 2013 may closely follow the pattern of 1998, when stocks rose more than 35% from the October lows through January 1999. This end of the outperformance in bonds likely means too much money chasing too few stocks and that means higher prices. We are set up to do work now in the 1474 - 1600 area. There is so much money still trapped out of stocks - this rally phase is about positioning and it will continue for perhaps months.

I don't know who you consider "folks", but with baby boomers now retiring, there is no way they are going to risk putting their money back in equities now if they have taken it out already. I would assume the baby boomers probably hold the greatest amount of funds out there as a population subset simply because of their current ages and when they started investing. I think you'll be waiting a long time for another 1998/1999, but who knows, I did see a pig fly in a commercial last night........................

Besides, TSP recommends they hold the L income fund now, which is 74% G fund. Think money market city..............

Originally Posted by Birchtree

Folks who are waiting for a buying dip may be terribly disappointed - 2013 may closely follow the pattern of 1998, when stocks rose more than 35% from the October lows through January 1999. This end of the outperformance in bonds likely means too much money chasing too few stocks and that means higher prices. We are set up to do work now in the 1474 - 1600 area. There is so much money still trapped out of stocks - this rally phase is about positioning and it will continue for perhaps months.

Well!, glad to see you cheering for this market. Thanks for the info. I have too much crap (G and L funds) now. February will be more into the CSI funds. Aiming for 2% or more by end of February.

I'm a retired baby boomer and every dime I own is invested in equities - no savings, no CDs. But I do have the security of a working wife. So I'm letting it all hang out in preparation for the mad dash of money that is going to rotate out of bonds into my pockets. It's a generational opportunity to make the dough.

the dollar (UUP) looks like it's about to take another nose dive to the bottom bollinger, more tail wind for this rally?