Thread: tsptalk's Market Talk

Originally Posted by JTH

We could be going through a rotation where the dollar & the markets are aligned.

fed made an announcement saying that QE should end 'well before' the end of 2013, makes sense the dollar would spike on that news

Wait a minute! How can the market go up if the Fed isn't artificially supporting it anymore?

(Questions we didn't have to ask 15 years ago. )

Originally Posted by tsptalk

Wait a minute! How can the market go up if the Fed isn't artificially supporting it anymore?

(Questions we didn't have to ask 15 years ago. )

Fed thinking of the possibility of yanking QE is a good sign that the economy is recovering I'd think. Or am I wrong here?

Originally Posted by sniper

Fed thinking of the possibility of yanking QE is a good sign that the economy is recovering I'd think. Or am I wrong here?

Market doesn't care...

Originally Posted by RealMoneyIssues

Market doesn't care...

that is true.

Originally Posted by sniper

Fed thinking of the possibility of yanking QE is a good sign that the economy is recovering I'd think. Or am I wrong here?

Good point. But it's like trying to tell a 25 year 'child' that they'd be better off in the long run if you don't keep giving them money to bail them out of financial problems. They'll throw a fit in the short-term, but benefit down the road.

In the 1990s equity markets in the US rallied as the US dollar rallied as well. JTH is correct in his assumption of a realignment. The main idea is do not let currency movements trick you into thinking that a strong dollar is bearish for equities. Valuations are setting the market up for a strong 3 to 5 years.

Agree. Find the trends / divergences, but when it's over, it's over. The dollar and the U.S. market don't always move counter to each other, but the divergence has been pretty strong for a few years. The international markets are however, much more influenced by the dollar.

VIX under 14, this makes me nervous. it seems like whenever it gets that low, another spike is coming

VIX currently at 13.66 -0.90 - put on your sticky pants. If your don't own a pair I'm sure Nnuut will lend you a pair of his. The coming consolidation may not happen until March.