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Thread: tsptalk's Market Talk

  1. #5449

    Default Re: tsptalk's Market Talk




    Tom
    Market Commentary | My Blog | TSP Talk Plus | |

    I am not a Registered Investment Advisor and this is not investment advice. Please do your own due diligence.

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  3. #5450

    Default Re: tsptalk's Market Talk

    Anyone else see something wrong with these pictures? Are we being duped?

    Tom
    Market Commentary | My Blog | TSP Talk Plus | |

    I am not a Registered Investment Advisor and this is not investment advice. Please do your own due diligence.

  4.  
  5. #5451

    Default Re: tsptalk's Market Talk

    High Yield Corp bonds are struggling a bit here. Could be a tell, but nothing too serious yet. Just a little underperforming of the S&P 500.

    Tom
    Market Commentary | My Blog | TSP Talk Plus | |

    I am not a Registered Investment Advisor and this is not investment advice. Please do your own due diligence.

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  7. #5452

    Default Re: tsptalk's Market Talk

    Some roadblocks, some potential targets. Another gap to fill below.




    Another pop higher in yields, but the 10-year continues to flounder in the bearish flag.




    Small caps too. Probably due for some relief but the bear flag persists.

    Tom
    Market Commentary | My Blog | TSP Talk Plus | |

    I am not a Registered Investment Advisor and this is not investment advice. Please do your own due diligence.

  8.  
  9. #5453

    Default Re: tsptalk's Market Talk

    The bulls are fighting through some serious obstacles, both technically and fundamentally.

    The Q4 GDP ticked down to 2.6%, just under estimates.

    Jobless claim were a slightly higher than expected, but basically inline, so no concern for interest rates there and probably why yields are lower today. Tomorrow's PCE report may be more telling.

    Transport broke above some recent high but it now testing its 200-day EMA.



    The S&P is trying to confirm the recent breakout and the trend is becoming the bulls' friend here, but the breakout opened another gap.
    Tom
    Market Commentary | My Blog | TSP Talk Plus | |

    I am not a Registered Investment Advisor and this is not investment advice. Please do your own due diligence.

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  11. #5454

    Default Re: tsptalk's Market Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by tsptalk View Post
    The S&P is trying to confirm the recent breakout and the trend is becoming the bulls' friend here, but the breakout opened another gap.
    FYI, this morning's gap will be filled somewhere between 4,028 (yesterday's close) and 4,031 (yesterday's high.)

    Today's low so far is 4032.
    Tom
    Market Commentary | My Blog | TSP Talk Plus | |

    I am not a Registered Investment Advisor and this is not investment advice. Please do your own due diligence.


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  13. #5455

    Default Re: tsptalk's Market Talk

    I thought this was interesting. Notice how in the current charts the S&P 500 is moving counter to the yield on the 10-year Treasury.




    Then go back to 2007 - 2008 and they were clearing moving much more in sync with each other.

    Tom
    Market Commentary | My Blog | TSP Talk Plus | |

    I am not a Registered Investment Advisor and this is not investment advice. Please do your own due diligence.

  14.  
  15. #5456

    Join Date
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    Default Re: tsptalk's Market Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by tsptalk View Post
    I thought this was interesting. Notice how in the current charts the S&P 500 is moving counter to the yield on the 10-year Treasury.

    Then go back to 2007 - 2008 and they were clearing moving much more in sync with each other.
    I swear, this market is totally disconnected from reality, I have no idea who's buying at these levels, at this point I'm starting to run out of things to sell. Perhaps some automated fund inflows are pushing prices higher on lower than usual volume.
    Retired, 55G/15C/15S/15I (Paper Trading)_ BLOG: Stats for March, Stats for Q1, 2024 Stats

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  17. #5457

    Default Re: tsptalk's Market Talk

    Yields and the dollar teetering toward a breakdown...

    Tom
    Market Commentary | My Blog | TSP Talk Plus | |

    I am not a Registered Investment Advisor and this is not investment advice. Please do your own due diligence.

  18.  
  19. #5458

    Default Re: tsptalk's Market Talk

    Some selling to start the day will bring out both dip buyers and FOMO investors, and the bears who will claim the rally is over. It's too early to say who is right, of course. The market tends to move in one direction longer than we think is reasonable, but it also loves to fool the most people it can so a case can be made for both more upside that frustrates those missing the boat, or a quick reversal down to catch all those new bulls off guard.

    Which will it be?

    Yields and the dollar are falling hard again this morning. If you missed the list of what is happening around the world regarding the dollar, here the link...

    What is going on... Last 7 days
    Tom
    Market Commentary | My Blog | TSP Talk Plus | |

    I am not a Registered Investment Advisor and this is not investment advice. Please do your own due diligence.

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  21. #5459

    Default Re: tsptalk's Market Talk

    A little more pulling back this morning. So far there is no sign of a top on THIS chart, and there is plenty of support, but other charts are wobbling a little more. Small caps (S-fund) are down another 1% in the early trading.



    Yields are down again pushing to new multi-month lows. The "F" flag is testing a possible support area so well have to see if toady's lows, that 3.27% area, can hold today.
    Tom
    Market Commentary | My Blog | TSP Talk Plus | |

    I am not a Registered Investment Advisor and this is not investment advice. Please do your own due diligence.

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  23. #5460

    Default Re: tsptalk's Market Talk

    Not a lot of action this morning. Yields are down slightly, and the dollar is up slightly.

    Regional banks are up, so the Russell 2000 is outperforming the S&P.

    Gold and silver are pulling back after some big rallies.

    Is this just a typical pre-holiday reversal that will reverse back up after the weekend, or has this week's weaker action changed the tone on Wall Street?

    No really... someone tell me.
    Tom
    Market Commentary | My Blog | TSP Talk Plus | |

    I am not a Registered Investment Advisor and this is not investment advice. Please do your own due diligence.

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