Thread: tsptalk's Market Talk

The 10-year yield opened sharply lower but hit the December high, bounced and has since filled in the gap. There is another gap up by 4.05%.

Stocks are mixed with small caps lagging and large caps doing well. There's more upside room on the S&P 500 charts than the S-fund chart.

From today's commentary"

The action certainly looks encouraging for the bulls, but today could be tricky. We've seen some fake outs, like the one in December where the breakout off the lows didn't last long and in fact quickly led to lower lows. Then, in early January we saw a similar Friday breakout from a consolidation, but the following Monday saw a major negative reversal. Now that one may have caused some panic selling when all of the big early Monday gains were lost, and then the following day the rally resumed. As I always say, "they", whoever they are, love to try to get us leaning the wrong way. Friday's bullish action probably will have mom and pop leaning on the bullish side to start the day, so will "they" do something to try to change that?

Last Friday a few people on Twitter said Zero days to expiration options (0DTE) were pushing the action up. Interesting the S&P reached 4077 three times already today but could not get to 4080.

I had to look that up...

https://www.reddit.com/r/odte/commen..._and_how_they/

Originally Posted by pmaloney

Last Friday a few people on Twitter said Zero days to expiration options (0DTE) were pushing the action up. Interesting the S&P reached 4077 three times already today but could not get to 4080.

The swings in the 10-year yield and the dollar, above and below support / resistance, continues. The 10-year is back below 4%, and whether it can stay there or not may determine if the rally in stocks can continue.

Lots of support underneath this morning's low. Make or break time?

Slow action to start the day. The bulls aren't overly impressive, but they are holding those support levels that the bears are trying to break.

Yields and the dollar are down so no pressure there. The 10-year remains below the 4%.

The JOLTS report showed job opening are down 400K from December but it's still over 10 million total.

https://www.cnbc.com/2023/03/08/job-...e-workers.html

Stocks are down again after a mixed jobs report that saw more jobs added than expected, but the unemployment rate went up to 3.6%. Revshark used a good term for what happened his morning report today when he said the Fed was blindsided by this trouble in the small banks, specifically the Silicon Valley Bank that was crushed yesterday, down 60%.

This may put the pressure on the Fed to back off of their extreme hawkish approach. Because of that, the S&P 500 is holding up OK so far, down modestly, but it's those small caps indices that are taking the brunt of this as they are littered with regional bank companies.

HYG, JNK, and LQD all holding up so far. Wonder why? Giving me hope.

I assume it is because the bank problem may ease monetary policy?