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Thread: tsptalk's Market Talk

  1. #5377

    Default Re: tsptalk's Market Talk

    Dumb money at peak levels. In the past this has marked every significant downturn.
    Screenshot 2023-01-24 175854.png

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  3. #5378

    Default Re: tsptalk's Market Talk

    Interesting! Microsoft has almost come full circle. It was up about 4% after the bell, down 4% at the open, and now closing in on being flat for the day as it trades at this morning's high.

    Tom
    Market Commentary | My Blog | TSP Talk Plus | |

    I am not a Registered Investment Advisor and this is not investment advice. Please do your own due diligence.

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  5. #5379

    Default Re: tsptalk's Market Talk

    I have mixed feelings about the action. This poor guidance from Microsoft could be the shot heard 'round the world about economic expectations, but the charts are indecisive right now. A close near the lows today would tell us a lot - not everything since we do have some bullish formations in those inverted head and shoulders patterns and a right shoulder formation may need more time, but it would be another failure at resistance.

    A strong close would tell us that the market may have priced in the slowdown caused by the Fed's rate hikes, which they have made no bones about, so the market has had plenty of time to adapt to that hawkishness. So the selling could be a knee-jerk reaction with dip buyers waiting in the wings.

    The S&P 500 is still holding above the 200-day simple moving average but it fell back below the 200-day EMA. If it can move up and close a 3rd day above it (it's about 5 points below it right now), that would be a good sign.

    Tom
    Market Commentary | My Blog | TSP Talk Plus | |

    I am not a Registered Investment Advisor and this is not investment advice. Please do your own due diligence.

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  7. #5380

    Default Re: tsptalk's Market Talk

    I'm thinking of some Jeffrey Gundlach (sp?) said a couple of weeks ago. if the yield on the 2-year Treasury gets below 4%, the Fed may be forced to slow his roll. What if that happens before Next Thursday's FOMC rate hike day?

    Tom
    Market Commentary | My Blog | TSP Talk Plus | |

    I am not a Registered Investment Advisor and this is not investment advice. Please do your own due diligence.

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  9. #5381

    Default Re: tsptalk's Market Talk

    We had a little breakout in the S-fund this morning, although it has come back below the neckline to address the gap it opened up on the higher open.




    The I-fund is struggling on the rally in the dollar after the stronger than expected GDP report.
    Tom
    Market Commentary | My Blog | TSP Talk Plus | |

    I am not a Registered Investment Advisor and this is not investment advice. Please do your own due diligence.

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  11. #5382

    Join Date
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    Default Re: tsptalk's Market Talk

    Unlike yesterday where it started red and finished green, I hope it stays green. Even a little.
    May the force be with us.


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  13. #5383

    Default Re: tsptalk's Market Talk

    More upside in the dollar and yields is putting a little pressure on stocks, particularly the I-fund, but the US stocks are battling back from two attempts by the bears to push things lower.

    Tom
    Market Commentary | My Blog | TSP Talk Plus | |

    I am not a Registered Investment Advisor and this is not investment advice. Please do your own due diligence.

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  15. #5384

    Default Re: tsptalk's Market Talk

    The market opened sharply lower this morning, but the dip buyers were close at hand, partially filling in the overhead gaps created.

    Yields are up slightly, the dollar is down slightly.

    There will be a lot of jockeying for position in from of this busy week of earnings and Wednesday's FOMC meeting.
    Tom
    Market Commentary | My Blog | TSP Talk Plus | |

    I am not a Registered Investment Advisor and this is not investment advice. Please do your own due diligence.

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  17. #5385

    Default Re: tsptalk's Market Talk

    Correction: The FOMC meeting is January 31 and February 1. I believe I had posted previously that it was Fed 1 and 2. Sorry about that.
    Tom
    Market Commentary | My Blog | TSP Talk Plus | |

    I am not a Registered Investment Advisor and this is not investment advice. Please do your own due diligence.

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  19. #5386

    Default Re: tsptalk's Market Talk

    Tom
    Market Commentary | My Blog | TSP Talk Plus | |

    I am not a Registered Investment Advisor and this is not investment advice. Please do your own due diligence.

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  21. #5387

    Join Date
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    Default Re: tsptalk's Market Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by tsptalk View Post
    Correction: The FOMC meeting is January 31 and February 1. I believe I had posted previously that it was Fed 1 and 2. Sorry about that.
    Also, some large cap names reporting earnings this week.

    Feb 2nd Apple, Google, Amazon, & Feb 1st Facebook
    Retired (actively passive) 100G _ STATS: 21 & 63 YEAR AVG. /

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  23. #5388

    Default Re: tsptalk's Market Talk

    The Transports are leading on the upside with UPS up sharply. The chart continues to build on that right shoulder of an inverted head and shoulders. These tend to break to the upside and being the market leader, it may have to if the January rally is going to keep going in February.

    Tom
    Market Commentary | My Blog | TSP Talk Plus | |

    I am not a Registered Investment Advisor and this is not investment advice. Please do your own due diligence.

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