Thread: tsptalk's Market Talk

Another rally into a CPI report (tomorrow.) Last month it set off a wild negative reversal day, and in November it triggered a big rally followed by some sideways action but positive.

Yields are down slightly and the dollar is flat and dancing on the recent lows.

It looks like the market is bracing for a favorable report. Unfortunately the Fed doesn't seem to care as much about price improvement as it does about wage data so it's questionable whether a CPI driven rally can hold again.

Earnings estimates will dominate the second half of January and there isn't another Fed meeting until February so the bulls and bears will play for the next several days and make of the CPI what they will.

Another nice day for the Transports, and the chart is improving everyday, but looks at the upcoming resistance. The CPI could make or break this move, I suppose, although earnings in the coming week will have a say.

Just before the opening bell the dollar and yields are down sharply on the CPI report which came in close to expectations.

Stocks futures are choppy as investors scramble to decide if this is a bear market changer, or do we see a sell the news reaction after this week's rally?

Oil, metals, and bitcoin are up.

We're seeing some weakness in the equities market this morning, and that's certainly expected given the size of the recent run higher, and the resistance that we see on the chart, which can be a self-fulfilling prophesy as chart technicians take profits. A breakout in the near future can change market sentiment, but until then there will be tentative buying in this area.

Yields and the dollar are up adding to the pressure on stocks, and it all adds up at the moment. Everyone is expecting a pullback in this area, but will that be too easy? Will "they" push a breakout and then take it down again? They need to figure out a way to get your money somehow.

I see a lot of selling on the autotracker this morning so again, will it really be that easy?

Good question. I think the more informed are still too spooked to buy with conviction just yet.


Scott Harrison
Senatobia, MS

Originally Posted by tsptalk

We're seeing some weakness in the equities market this morning, and that's certainly expected given the size of the recent run higher, and the resistance that we see on the chart, which can be a self-fulfilling prophesy as chart technicians take profits. A breakout in the near future can change market sentiment, but until then there will be tentative buying in this area.

Yields and the dollar are up adding to the pressure on stocks, and it all adds up at the moment. Everyone is expecting a pullback in this area, but will that be too easy? Will "they" push a breakout and then take it down again? They need to figure out a way to get your money somehow.

I see a lot of selling on the autotracker this morning so again, will it really be that easy?

The 3-day weekend snuck up on me before I could post anything, it looks to me that the 4 days (post MKL) are historically below the 21-year daily average. Perhaps folks want to take a breather over the long weekend.

A modest bounce in the dollar and yields put pressure on stocks at the open, but all have reversed a bit. The Dow is taking a hit with Goldman Sachs down 5% after reporting earnings.

The post MLK holiday has a negative bias and there is some early January gains for profit takers to grab.

High Yield Corp. Bonds are down slightly but still near multi-month highs.

Equal weighted S&P 500