Thread: tsptalk's Market Talk

A big sell off in the dollar on the rise in unemployment fills one gap while opening another. Another test of the lower end of the bear flag, or is this just filling the gap?




That is causing prices to rise across the board - stocks, metals, bitcoin, oil, nat gas, etc.

A close below 3700 today would be alarming. It would make a negative outside reversal day and push it below the bear flag support.

The S&P 500 (C-fund) and especially the DWCPF (S-fund) have given up early gains from this morning, yet the ETF EFA (I-fund) is still holding onto its gains of over 3% today. Is that because EFA (I-fund) has a greater tie to China's news of its plans to ease Covid restrictions or do you see another reason for its outperformance today?

The dollar was down almost 2% and that's most likely the difference.

What do you make of Copper up over 7.5% today? Wow!

Commodities in general rallied with that weak dollar.

Oil was up 5%
NatGas +9%
Gold +3.3%
Silver +7.6%
Bitcoin +2.6%

The historic post midterm market action is fairly strong through the end of the year, but interestingly it is mixed to weak after the election thru the end of November - when looking at the three particular situations we are in this year: 1st term midterm, Dem president midterm, and 2nd year Dem president

Very choppy, flat action so far to start the new week with the elections on deck.

Yields are up putting pressure on the market but the dollar is down so I see commodity prices are up again - gold, silver, oil, nat gas, etc.

It's just directionless right now and tough to get a feel for which way it wants to go. CPI on Thursday and the eventual election result could give us more of a definitive direction.

10-year Treasury Yield closed at 4.21%. 3rd highest close for this yield this year. 4.23% was the highest on 10/23.

Yields and the dollar are down this morning, helping give the stock market some buoyancy on election day. See a few posts back about the midterm election tendencies.

Small caps are lagging a bit and it's the Dow (30 stocks) that have been leading the market for the last couple of months, and that's without the help of Apple and other big tech companies that led the market up for years. The I-fund continues to lead during this pullback in the dollar.

The weak dollar also has gold and silver rallying, while oil is flat and nat gas is falling hard.

Bitcoin is getting slammed for some reason - down $1435 at the moment.

Tomorrow could be interesting if we don't know who controls the House and Senate by then. And of course the CPI report will be the biggie on Thursday.

Good luck!

Is this a real reversal, or just another sucker rally? The higher lows is new, but that's what makes it look like a bear flag.