Thread: tsptalk's Market Talk

Yeah, not the greatest looking pattern but a meaningful right shoulder could still form out of an oversold market as long as the neckline holds. Otherwise, like you said, it could be a bear flag which would more likely go straight down. In bear markets, you can't always count on oversold rallies. Buying in a bear market is always a big risk, but if you can catch it right, the reward can be very nice, if we're nimble.

Yes I stepped in and got the bounce yesterday but did not sell back out so I'm waiting and watching. Things overall just do not look good. How far down we can go is yet to be seen. Really isn't any potential good news I can see coming, unless maybe earnings aren't as bad as some think, but I do not think that alone will suddenly catapult this market and turn things around. We have a ways to go imo. But, I hope I'm wrong and we really do find some support and some good news that we cannot see comes to light, soon!

I've been trying to focus more on the charting, resistance, support, averages, etc., just hoping that helps in figuring out what the markets MAY do if they trade into a certain position. But markets rarely do what I think lol. Others have a much better track record.

This recent trading range seems to be a very important area. A push above 3750, the open gap, opens the door to a possible move up to 3950 - the top of the left shoulder. A break below 3600 could precede a precipitous decline.

There was a week in October of 2008 where the S&P 500 lost 18% -- yes, in a week!

Stocks are snapping back this first day of trading in October - new month, new direction? I'm skeptical although there is a positive bias when a new month starts because of new money coming into the market.

Oscar mentioned the 9 day moving average as being significant recently on the Russell 2000 chart so I ran it on the DWCPF (S-fund) and it seems to be meaningful here as well. Let's see if it can break above it or if it will continue to act as resistance.




Yields and the dollar are down to start the new week, and oil is up more than $4 a barrel.




Gold an silver are also flying high this morning.

The bear flag on the small caps breaks up. Investors are anticipating a monetary pivot, but nothing from the Fed suggesting this yet.

Gaps are opening on the charts and the next resistance on DWCPF is about 20-point overhead.




Yields and the dollar are down again, which is helping trigger the rally in stocks, oil, gold, silver, bitcoin, etc.

We've seen a lot of these 2 - 4 day rallies fail this year with a few that go on longer. The question when you see one start is whether this is going to be of the 2 - 4 day variety, or the 1 to 2 month variety.

The jury is still out on this one as we see some backing and filling of yesterday's gains, but there's an open gap below and that could be the downside target, or maybe even another test of the lows.

What we may least expect is to see today's decline fall short of the open gap and rally right back, making it just as good of a possibility, I suppose.




This morning's stronger than expected ADP jobs report seems to be turning the perceived Fed pivot hopes back down.

ADP Employment Change

That stronger than expected ADP report this morning is sending yields and the dollar higher, and that's reversing the recent stock market rally's catalyst.

Some choppy action to start the day as investors and traders position themselves in front of tomorrow's important jobs report. Yields and the dollar are moving higher this morning putting some downside pressure to stocks.

Next week we'll get another CPI report. These two reports could completely change the complexion of the bear market, or feed it if it looks like inflation is still gaining strength or even maintain the recent high levels.

There was a lot of intrigue over this huge options purchase story betting on a big rally...

Wed: One Big Option Trade Fueled S&P 500’s Midday Jump, Wells Fargo Says

The trade included buying 20,000 S&P 500 calls expiring in October with a strike price of 4,500 and 14,000 bullish contracts expiring in March at a strike of 4,300, while selling 48,000 calls maturing in January with an exercise price at 4,500 -- a bet that essentially says stocks would rally in coming months.

https://www.yahoo.com/now/one-big-op...193109433.html

Originally Posted by tsptalk

Some choppy action to start the day as investors and traders position themselves in front of tomorrow's important jobs report. Yields and the dollar are moving higher this morning putting some downside pressure to stocks.

Next week we'll get another CPI report. These two reports could completely change the complexion of the bear market, or feed it if it looks like inflation is still gaining strength or even maintain the recent high levels.

There was a lot of intrigue over this huge options purchase story betting on a big rally...

Wed: One Big Option Trade Fueled S&P 500’s Midday Jump, Wells Fargo Says



https://www.yahoo.com/now/one-big-op...193109433.html

Stocks will probably rally if the election leans even more to Republican control of both houses...neutralizing the progressive agenda is needed for the market to trend bullish. Of course, one nuclear bomb of any size will....ohoh...

Yes, the market does like gridlock in DC.

One gap filled on the S&P 500, and another open one below 3600. Also, a new gap was opened on today's weak open on the upside.