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Thread: tsptalk's Market Talk

  1. #5089

    Default Re: tsptalk's Market Talk

    The trend is down and any buying is going against the trend, but I can't help wonder if the S&P wanted to test that 50-day EMA, fill that gap up near 4000, but the pre-holiday reversal took over this week? Not sure, but if that's the case we could see a reversal back up next week. That's a risky bet but possible. After that... too much resistance.




    With the dollar making new highs, and if it holds it would be a new closing high, all prices remain under pressure. Commodities are up some this morning somehow, but they have been beaten down badly recently with this strength in the dollar.

    Tom
    Market Commentary | My Blog | TSP Talk Plus | |

    I am not a Registered Investment Advisor. Please do your own due diligence.

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  3. #5090

    Default Re: tsptalk's Market Talk

    I'd be surprised if this rally holds into the close before 3-day weekend...

    5-minute chart:

    Tom
    Market Commentary | My Blog | TSP Talk Plus | |

    I am not a Registered Investment Advisor. Please do your own due diligence.

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  5. #5091

    Default Re: tsptalk's Market Talk

    It's holding up pretty well. New month, new quarter, new money I suppose. Next week will be a test, however.




    Closing update:


    Last edited by tsptalk; 07-01-2022 at 03:13 PM. Reason: update
    Tom
    Market Commentary | My Blog | TSP Talk Plus | |

    I am not a Registered Investment Advisor. Please do your own due diligence.

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  7. #5092

    Default Re: tsptalk's Market Talk

    Look at that Bond ETF make its way above the 50-day EMA for the first time all year. This is what our F-fund tracks. There's more resistance above but we may finally be seeing the door open to the F-fund as a possible investment again - at least as long as the economy appears to be slowing.

    Tom
    Market Commentary | My Blog | TSP Talk Plus | |

    I am not a Registered Investment Advisor. Please do your own due diligence.

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  9. #5093

    Default Re: tsptalk's Market Talk

    .... and look at the dollar making new highs after breaking out above the cup and handle. This is continuing to put pressure on commodities. Oil is down almost $5 a barrel, gold, silver, corn, wheat, etc., are all down.

    070522b.jpg
    Tom
    Market Commentary | My Blog | TSP Talk Plus | |

    I am not a Registered Investment Advisor. Please do your own due diligence.

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  11. #5094

    Default Re: tsptalk's Market Talk

    FBN reported that oil being down is a sign of recession. Maybe that is why market is dropping.
    Please don't take comments as trading advice /IFTs: 4-26-22=100G/Prior: 4-13-22=G30-F20-S25-C25/ https://www.theepochtimes.com/ & http://www.ewg.org/ Permalink #4816@pg402


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  13. #5095

    Default Re: tsptalk's Market Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by DreamboatAnnie View Post
    FBN reported that oil being down is a sign of recession. Maybe that is why market is dropping.
    I think a Recession has already been priced in.
    Definition of Recession is 2 straight quarters of negative GDP. We already had -1.6% GDP 1st qtr of 2022 and estimates are of an even higher negative # this quarter.

    But price of oil is almost entirely GLOBAL supply and demand, minus refinery issues and geopolitical (WAR).
    So in 2020 OPEC...at the request of the then-US President (trying to not get too political) agreed to CUT Oil Production. Oil prices then took off ever since, combining with post "Severe Covid" travel demands in 2021 as well Russian invasion/sanctions early 2022.
    https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/13/opec...an-yergin.html

    However, that 2 year Oil Production Cut deal just ended, and OPEC just announced Oil Production HIKES, to go into effect next month, which almost always tends to lower oil prices, especially when coupled with the recent drop in demand as gasoline prices are at record high levels, less people taking long road trips, boating or driving RV's.
    https://www.cnbc.com/2022/06/30/opec...ns-linger.html

    So I doubt its mostly based on recession fears, as we probably "technically" started recession back in January and the near 30% drop in the S&P from recent highs likely priced most of that in. I think its mostly supply & demand...just basic Capitalism.
    This could be good news for all of us, as lowering oil prices by itself would eventually lead to lower prices at the pumps, combined with the fact that after July 4th we are going past the summer-time travel peak.
    This could help with inflation soon....which could reduce the fears of massive future rate hikes...and might make markets soar sooner rather than later....meaning we might be closing in on our market lows (hopefully) and might need to think about getting in, and staying in, stocks soon. IMHO.
    CURRENTLY 50% C and 50% S (as of COB 07/07/2022) 1st July IFT

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  15. #5096

    Default Re: tsptalk's Market Talk

    The early action sees the dollar up again - oil is down to $98, yields are up slightly and stocks chopping between gains and losses.




    The Transports are down sharply and have been moving sideways making its own bear flag.

    Tom
    Market Commentary | My Blog | TSP Talk Plus | |

    I am not a Registered Investment Advisor. Please do your own due diligence.

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  17. #5097

    Default Re: tsptalk's Market Talk

    Big test for small caps at the 20-day EMAs - Russell 2000 (IWM) and DWCPF (S-fund).

    Tom
    Market Commentary | My Blog | TSP Talk Plus | |

    I am not a Registered Investment Advisor. Please do your own due diligence.

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  19. #5098

    Default Re: tsptalk's Market Talk

    The post holiday rally continues as the S&P is up for a thirst straight day, although lately what we see in the morning isn't always what we get at the close.

    Yields are up again and the 2/10 year bond inversion is getting deeper. High Yield Corp. bonds are up big but against a bear flag and resistance so it has more work to do.

    The dollar is flat and oil is moving up sharply higher again - back over $103 barrel after falling below $95 a couple of days ago.

    There's a path to the open gap near 4000 on the S&P 500 but we see several bear flags on the index charts as well.
    Tom
    Market Commentary | My Blog | TSP Talk Plus | |

    I am not a Registered Investment Advisor. Please do your own due diligence.

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  21. #5099

    Default Re: tsptalk's Market Talk

    A much stronger than expected jobs report sent stocks lower initially, but they've come roaring right back.

    The concern is that the strong report has inflationary implications. Remember, it was not weakening economic data that caused the bear market. It was inflation. And the slowdown was a consequence of the Fed reacting to the inflation by raising rates. Strong economic data will more than likely strengthen their resolve to hike.

    Yields are up on the economically strong report, and the price of oil is rallying on this news as well. Higher yields and higher gas prices have been causing the stock market some issues, but not today - at least as of 11:30 AM ET.

    High Yield Corporate Bonds are down slightly on the day as I watch the bear flag on that chart (not shown.)

    Tom
    Market Commentary | My Blog | TSP Talk Plus | |

    I am not a Registered Investment Advisor. Please do your own due diligence.

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  23. #5100

    Default Re: tsptalk's Market Talk

    There goes the dollar again, putting more pressure on prices of commodities, gold, silver, bitcoin, and on a good note - oil.

    Stocks are down as investors continue to digest the strong jobs report, and brace for the important CPI report on Wednesday, and bank earnings later in the week. Also, the run on the banks in China isn't helping.

    Tom
    Market Commentary | My Blog | TSP Talk Plus | |

    I am not a Registered Investment Advisor. Please do your own due diligence.

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