Thread: tsptalk's Market Talk

Originally Posted by tsptalk

Per www.cmegroup.com

Probability of a 0.75% rate hike tomorrow. 94%.

0.50% = 6% probability

over/under for 1%?

Two morning rallies that need to hold.

What happens to the "g" fund rate when the Fed hikes interest rates??

Originally Posted by skycophigh

What happens to the "g" fund rate when the Fed hikes interest rates??

Our G fund will earn more. It usually takes until the end of the month before the daily rate shows up enough difference to tell, but yes, when the fed increases interest rates, our G fund payout also changes based on market interest rates, and G will pay out slightly more. It doesn’t always match exactly what the fed does- I.e. the G fund payout rate might not go up by exactly 0.75% on an annual basis, but it will move.

The G rate of return used to be close to the 30 year T-bill. However, previous administrations lowered the G fund payout, and these days it is closer to the 5-year rate than the 30 year rate.


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Reminder: Friday is a quadruple witching expiration day.

It won't matter if it's capitulation or not, volume will spike dramatically, perhaps making it appear as if it was a capitulation day.

A failed morning rally after the futures were positive all night.

The Nasdaq and small cap are clinging to a small gains while the S&P in now negative testing yesterday's lows.

Oil is down sharply at 111 a barrel on the futures market, which should help.

Quadruple witching should make it an interesting day.

Despite the S&P 500 lagging, the internal numbers are pretty good heading into the midday.

Those indicators that worked so well during the bull (sentiment, bollinger band bounces, breadth thrusts) continue to fail. Oversold has gotten even more oversold. I don't think many are ready for a ride to 3,500 or lower this summer as there is still a lot of hope. Earnings are going to have to come in "less worse" than expected because forward guidance is not going to be positive.