Thread: tsptalk's Market Talk

Lots of warnings from the TSP Talk family. I’m listening this time and sitting on my hands.


Scott Harrison
Senatobia, MS

The calm before the storm -- a mixed market this morning before the Fed rate hike this afternoon.

The more interest rate sensitive small caps and the Nasdaq are lagging today with the Naz down 1%. The Dow is trying to hold onto a small gain.

The charts suggest a bearish scenario, and it is tough to anticipate a good outcome in this environment. Yet stocks are oversold and investors are overly bearish and that could ignite a rally, especially if the Fed says something that triggers FOMO from those underinvested.

0.25%, 0.50%, or 0.75% ??

Oscar (livewithoscar) expects a 0.25% cut, while most people anticipate 0.50% (99.1% probability according to cmegroup). It would be impressive if Oscar gets it right.

Wow, it took them no time at all to reverse yesterday's big decline in the dollar. Don't you love it when a good manipulation plan comes together so smoothly?

It's early for the stock market but this move in the dollar is suspicious.

New high for the 10-year yield. What changed in the last 17 hours?

I read this morning that since late January, there have been six daily gains of 2% or more in the S&P 500. Some led to decent bounces, but nothing long lasting. Yesterday would be the seventh big up day that failed to follow through with any lasting upside.

The 10-year yield and the dollar aren't doing much, but we're seeing some panic selling to start the day.

The charts are running out of support.

Once again, the "like" button is inadequate.

Here's a weekly chart of the S-fund in both linear and log scale:

The chart is really getting deep below its 50-week average. During the financial crisis in 2008 the log scale version really shows how bad that period was, and I suppose how bad things can still get. But aside from that one, and perhaps the COVID crash, this may be getting overly stretched to the downside.

Just as bull markets tend to overshoot, bear markets tend to take things down more than we'd expect, not taking prices to fairly valued, but to undervalued before it's over.

The 200-week MA is being tested. We tend to see corrections find support there, but the two bear markets cut right through it.

An open gap from April 1, 2021 was filled today.

Don't remember much these days (youthful indiscretions?) , but this post struck my funny bone way back when.

I think you have an answer!!

Originally Posted by weatherweenie

Is the drop in the market allowed?