Thread: tsptalk's Market Talk

The dollar and the yield on the 10-year are popping at the opening bell following the hot CPI number.

One gaps filled, another open on the UUP.



The 10-year hit 2.0% at the open

That dip was bought up quick!

Originally Posted by tsptalk

The dollar and the yield on the 10-year are popping at the opening bell following the hot CPI number.

One gap filled, another open on the UUP.

What a turnaround for the dollar after gapping up. Is this the start of the dollar melt down?

I can hear the dollar crying!!! bullbeg.gifdown.gif

Stocks are trying to stabilize after yesterday's volatile melt-down. The problem here is that resistance continues to hold and the story is bearish with the Fed waiting in the wings to raise interest rates more aggressively than we originally thought - and they haven't even started yet.

The bull flag on the S&P looks better than the bearish flag on the DWCPF (S-fund), but it's those 50-day EMA that continue to hold down the indices, and that's bear market like behavior.

Crazy couple days. For some reason F fund is up, any reason why? It was recently performing in lockstep with the SPY so it was starting to look like a not-so-great hedge against downside

Originally Posted by sniper

For some reason F fund is up, any reason why?

No other fixed income comes close globally. Bond prices have already factored in expected rate raises. Russian invasion fears. Bear market fears.

As TSPtalk mentioned in the daily commentary - yield curve steepening.

It looks like the S&P 500 will hold at the 200-day EMA. In January the low came on the Monday after the Friday that also held at the 200-day EMA. It struggled from there for about a week or so. If it holds, great. If not, a test of the lows would be imminent.

Originally Posted by sniper

Crazy couple days. For some reason F fund is up, any reason why? It was recently performing in lockstep with the SPY so it was starting to look like a not-so-great hedge against downside

Originally Posted by Bullitt

No other fixed income comes close globally. Bond prices have already factored in expected rate raises. Russian invasion fears. Bear market fears.

As TSPtalk mentioned in the daily commentary - yield curve steepening.

The implication of the Russia / Ukraine conflict would be bad for the economy, which took yields down. That pushed bond prices up.

Also, gold and bonds tend to be the safety play when stocks are falling sharply.

Originally Posted by tsptalk

The implication of the Russia / Ukraine conflict would be bad for the economy, which took yields down. That pushed bond prices up.

Also, gold and bonds tend to be the safety play when stocks are falling sharply.

The flight to safety is one to watch in my opinion. The commercials continue to add and hold 10 year notes. Why?

The new COT data will be updated soon on this site.