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Thread: tsptalk's Market Talk

  1. #4801

    Default Re: tsptalk's Market Talk

    On days like today, a day trader would step aside or sell the rallies. Investors would be looking for bargains and adding to their positions.
    Tom
    Market Commentary | My Blog | TSP Talk Plus | |

    I am not a Registered Investment Advisor. Please do your own due diligence.

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  3. #4802

    Default Re: tsptalk's Market Talk

    Early action:

    A big move higher in stocks this morning has the S&P reaching for yesterday's highs, but could be running into some resistance so another wave of buyer may be needed to avoid another push lower by the bears. Volume was very high on Tuesday, and that had a bottoming feel like in September, but even if it was a bottom, a test of the lows as we saw in October is possible. That mid-September fake out breakout was a big disappointment to the bulls.




    The yield on the 10-year T-bill is up some as it eyes those open gaps. The dollar is down again but looking to stabilize near some rising support.




    Tom
    Market Commentary | My Blog | TSP Talk Plus | |

    I am not a Registered Investment Advisor. Please do your own due diligence.

  4.  
  5. #4803

    Default Re: tsptalk's Market Talk

    Yields are trying to find support this morning but the safety trade for bonds is holding them back for now. The overhead gap has got to be an obvious target - maybe too obvious?




    Stocks are rebounding but the tentativeness is in the air after yesterday's rally was destroyed by a headline.




    The S-fund finds itself under the 200-day EMA - a place it has not been in a long time.
    Tom
    Market Commentary | My Blog | TSP Talk Plus | |

    I am not a Registered Investment Advisor. Please do your own due diligence.

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  7. #4804

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    Default Re: tsptalk's Market Talk

    Amazing that S&P 500 is up so much with TSLA, MSFT, AMZN, AAPL either down or flat.

    The cheerleaders are pumping the up day hard and they have good reason based on fib bounce, 33% retrace break, and being back above the 50 DMA (intraday). If things are to continue, the IWM/DWCPF are going to have to come along for the ride. Both have been largely range bound in 2021 and contributed nothing.

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  9. #4805

    Default Re: tsptalk's Market Talk

    Lots of movement this morning after the mixed jobs report. Yields were up, but now are down. The dollar is strong.

    Stocks futures rallies after the jobs report was released, and have since come back down after the opening bell and are now giving up some of Thursday's gains.

    Tom
    Market Commentary | My Blog | TSP Talk Plus | |

    I am not a Registered Investment Advisor. Please do your own due diligence.

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  11. #4806

    Default Re: tsptalk's Market Talk

    Some bullish but choppy action so far this morning. Yields and the dollar are up.




    The S&P and small caps are up but remain inside the consolidation area that they've traded in for the last week.




    The Transports have been the leader as they bottomed a few days ago and seem to have found good support at the 100-day average.

    Tom
    Market Commentary | My Blog | TSP Talk Plus | |

    I am not a Registered Investment Advisor. Please do your own due diligence.


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  13. #4807

    Default Re: tsptalk's Market Talk

    Stocks gap up as concerns about Omicron fade. Small caps are leading with a big rally. The EFA is up as well, as it jumped over the big November open gap (effectively filling it), while opening another large gap.




    Yields are up and you can see the difference in the shorter 2-year yield (lower chart) vs. the 10-year, so the yield curve between the two has been narrowing quite a bit lately.




    Tom
    Market Commentary | My Blog | TSP Talk Plus | |

    I am not a Registered Investment Advisor. Please do your own due diligence.

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  15. #4808

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    Default Re: tsptalk's Market Talk

    I have to question the investor fear charts if there's been this much inflows during down days. The chart doesn't tell how much of this is TSLA call options though.

    FF_3gTZX0AQU5-3.png

    https://www.ft.com/content/deaa2633-...d-a457aaed297f

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  17. #4809

    Default Re: tsptalk's Market Talk

    Another move up for the 10-year yield. A small gap was filled above 1.5%, and the big one looms near 1.65%. The dollar is down and broke down from a wedge or flag-like formation.




    The small caps are leading so far, while the I-fund is struggling below the 50-day EMA despite the drop in the dollar. European lockdowns?

    Tom
    Market Commentary | My Blog | TSP Talk Plus | |

    I am not a Registered Investment Advisor. Please do your own due diligence.

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  19. #4810

    Default Re: tsptalk's Market Talk

    The initial jobless claims came in a little hot. Yields are surprisingly down, the dollar is up. Stocks are doing a little digesting of recent gains. Important CPI report tomorrow.

    Tom
    Market Commentary | My Blog | TSP Talk Plus | |

    I am not a Registered Investment Advisor. Please do your own due diligence.

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  21. #4811

    Default Re: tsptalk's Market Talk

    Early action:

    The CPI came in much hotter than expected this morning. Yields are falling? The only thing I can think of there is that investors are reacting not to the CPI data, but to the fact that the Fed will act to slow that down. Otherwise, I don't get it. The dollar is up.




    Also confusing was the initial stock market reaction as the futures spiked higher after the CPI report. Was it a sell the rumor, buy the news thing? Since the open they've come back down and we can see the S-fund trying to hold at the the 50-day EMA, while also trying to fill in the open gap.

    Tom
    Market Commentary | My Blog | TSP Talk Plus | |

    I am not a Registered Investment Advisor. Please do your own due diligence.

  22.  
  23. Default Re: tsptalk's Market Talk

    The market was looking for an even hotter inflation (whispered number)reading than forecasts…also trending shows longer-term inflation expectations easing from a peak of 2.76%…but that’s not going change what The Fed will do next week


    Sent from my iPhone using TSP Talk Forums

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