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Thread: tsptalk's Market Talk

  1. #4777

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    Default Re: tsptalk's Market Talk

    I think the anomalous advance in the SPX can all be explained by the TNX chart. Hedge funds, etc. made huge levered bets against bonds as a "straight-forward trade for 2021-2022" and were forced to unwind. The move wasn't that big in TNX, but massive leverage rarely works out, it's just that when it does, you get carried off the field like Michael Burry or John Paulson.

    I don't understand all the hate for bonds. People been calling for the end of it's secular bull run since 2008 and have been wrong ever since. Global markets are trapped into lower rates, not just the US. Rates can't double from here without causing global hurt. Betting on higher rates has been nothing but a losing trade, the trend remains down.

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  3. #4778

    Default Re: tsptalk's Market Talk

    I hope you didn't blink because you would have missed it. Stocks were down sharply after the bell but they are already bouncing back. It's a long day and anything can happen, but we're getting a feel for how ferocious the dip buying is.




    Yields are falling again (why?) and the dollar is flat after initially falling on the PPI report.




    The PPI (Producer Prices) report was hot but inline with estimates.
    Tom
    Market Commentary | My Blog | TSP Talk Plus | |

    I am not a Registered Investment Advisor and this is not investment advice. Please do your own due diligence.

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  5. #4779

    Default Re: tsptalk's Market Talk

    The Consumer price report came in much higher than expected raising inflation concerns. Yields are popping higher on the data, and the head and shoulders pattern is playing out very typically. A test of the neckline would generally fail, but the fact that the open gap near the H&S downside target was filled is basically completing the pattern, so anything can happen now.



    The dollar is also up sharply, putting pressure on stocks, but because metals tend to do well in inflationary environment, gold and silver are breaking out to the upside despite the strength in the dollar.

    Tom
    Market Commentary | My Blog | TSP Talk Plus | |

    I am not a Registered Investment Advisor and this is not investment advice. Please do your own due diligence.


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  7. #4780

    Default Re: tsptalk's Market Talk

    Rally in yields and the dollar are extending...



    Quote Originally Posted by tsptalk View Post

    Tom
    Market Commentary | My Blog | TSP Talk Plus | |

    I am not a Registered Investment Advisor and this is not investment advice. Please do your own due diligence.

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  9. #4781

    Default Re: tsptalk's Market Talk

    The bond market and some financial institutions are closed today, and being a semi-holiday for the market, it's not easy to trust the action.

    The dollar is up and making new highs. The Dow is down while small caps are leading with the Russell getting back about 50-60% of yesterday's losses. Tomorrow, or Monday may be a better indication of what the market wants to do.
    Tom
    Market Commentary | My Blog | TSP Talk Plus | |

    I am not a Registered Investment Advisor and this is not investment advice. Please do your own due diligence.

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  11. #4782

    Default Re: tsptalk's Market Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by tsptalk View Post
    The bond market and some financial institutions are closed today, and being a semi-holiday for the market, it's not easy to trust the action.

    The dollar is up and making new highs. The Dow is down while small caps are leading with the Russell getting back about 50-60% of yesterday's losses. Tomorrow, or Monday may be a better indication of what the market wants to do.
    Would really like to see those gaps below on a lot of the charts get filled in before I expose any more cash to the market. How long typically do you have to wait for that many gaps to get filled in? Weeks, months? We are about a month out now since the first gap showed up.

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  13. #4783

    Default Re: tsptalk's Market Talk

    They usually get filled fairly quickly, but when they don't it's just a waiting game and unfortunately could take months.

    If we get a continued pullback, those will certainly be potential targets, but no guarantees.
    Tom
    Market Commentary | My Blog | TSP Talk Plus | |

    I am not a Registered Investment Advisor and this is not investment advice. Please do your own due diligence.

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  15. #4784

    Default Re: tsptalk's Market Talk

    Yesterday was a holiday for bonds so this is a post holiday trading day for TNX. You can see that we did get a pre-holiday rally before Columbus Day in Oct, and a reversal after. A rally before veteran's Day and starting today with a small drop in yields (bond prices up.)



    The dollar is pausing at the upper resistance line of its channel.


    The S&P 500 is having a solid morning, but it needs to do more in order to avoid what could be a small bear flag.

    Tom
    Market Commentary | My Blog | TSP Talk Plus | |

    I am not a Registered Investment Advisor and this is not investment advice. Please do your own due diligence.

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  17. #4785

    Default Re: tsptalk's Market Talk

    Early action:

    A slow but positive start to the new week, but no follow through to the open yet. Small caps are lagging a bit. The dollar is up, but just slightly. Yields are up again and if this starts to accelerate we could see tech stocks start to get a little cranky.



    Is that a small bear flag forming on the Russell 2000?
    Tom
    Market Commentary | My Blog | TSP Talk Plus | |

    I am not a Registered Investment Advisor and this is not investment advice. Please do your own due diligence.

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  19. #4786

    Join Date
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    Default Re: tsptalk's Market Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by tsptalk View Post
    Is that a small bear flag forming on the Russell 2000?
    Coming out of a strong bull run, I wouldn't put much stock in that bear flag. I like them more when they continue a trend, bull flags in bull runs, bear flags in bear runs, etc. Just my opinion.

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  21. #4787

    Default Re: tsptalk's Market Talk

    I agree, betting against this market hasn't gotten anyone anywhere this year, except for maybe a trade in September. But coincidentally the TNX chart in that last post had a similar sized bear flag coming off the highs that did break down. It was a small bear flag, and the breakdown wasn't huge, but proportionate.

    Tom
    Market Commentary | My Blog | TSP Talk Plus | |

    I am not a Registered Investment Advisor and this is not investment advice. Please do your own due diligence.

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  23. #4788

    Default Re: tsptalk's Market Talk

    Early action:

    The dollar keeps plowing higher while the yield on the 10-year Treasury pulls back a bit from its recent breakout.




    The strength in the dollar is holding the I-fund back, and this morning there's a mini breakdown from a small bear flag.




    Same for the Russell 2000 small caps index (IWM), although we're not quite seeing that yet in the S-fund index dwcpf.

    Tom
    Market Commentary | My Blog | TSP Talk Plus | |

    I am not a Registered Investment Advisor and this is not investment advice. Please do your own due diligence.


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