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Thread: tsptalk's Market Talk

  1. #4753

    Default Re: tsptalk's Market Talk

    The dollar, 10-year yield and HYG (High Yield Corp Bonds) are all down slightly to start the day, as stocks seem to be in some kind of a melt up phase as the indices race toward the early September highs.

    DWCPF (S-fund) would be at a new closing high if it can close where it is now, but with the large open gap below, a double top pullback is possible. Can it finally break out or is the top of the long trading range going to hold yet again?

    Tom
    Market Commentary | My Blog | TSP Talk Plus | |

    I am not a Registered Investment Advisor. Please do your own due diligence.

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  3. #4754

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    Default Re: tsptalk's Market Talk

    Nasdaq getting hit today. Utilities up big. Rising electricity costs?

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  5. #4755

    Default Re: tsptalk's Market Talk

    I see the 10-year hit 1.65% earlier today, before dipping back a bit - could be spooking tech.
    Tom
    Market Commentary | My Blog | TSP Talk Plus | |

    I am not a Registered Investment Advisor. Please do your own due diligence.

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  7. #4756

    Default Re: tsptalk's Market Talk

    Yields are up again - the 10-year is hitting 1.68% and moving above the F-flag, which usually break down.




    The VIX is up some this morning - trying to fund support at the bottom of the comfort zone between 15 and 18. It did break below the rising support line off the July lows this week.

    Tom
    Market Commentary | My Blog | TSP Talk Plus | |

    I am not a Registered Investment Advisor. Please do your own due diligence.

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  9. #4757

    Default Re: tsptalk's Market Talk

    Yields are pretty flat this morning. The dollar is down again and again flirting with the 50-day EMA.




    Silver and gold gapped way up this morning, but they are settling down some, filling in those gaps already.

    The Transports can't go up fast enough. What are we missing? Perhaps all of the 3rd quarter economic slow down data is nothing more rearview mirror news now?




    The High Yield Corp. bonds are down again and trying to fill in an open gap, but the weakness is suggesting possible trouble in the credit market. Odd action for a big rally in stocks. Both bull flags and bear flags have been breaking down on this chart, and it is back below the 50-day average.

    Tom
    Market Commentary | My Blog | TSP Talk Plus | |

    I am not a Registered Investment Advisor. Please do your own due diligence.

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  11. #4758

    Default Re: tsptalk's Market Talk

    stockschart.com is down right now so I don't have any charts. But the 10-year yield is down this morning, and the dollar is up.

    We head into a heavy earnings week with stocks up, and small caps leading. The Dow is mostly flat.
    Tom
    Market Commentary | My Blog | TSP Talk Plus | |

    I am not a Registered Investment Advisor. Please do your own due diligence.

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  13. #4759

    Default Re: tsptalk's Market Talk

    Stockcharts is back up so...

    The dollar is up filling in that very small open gap from the prior Monday. There is one more open gap above, and a bunch below support.



    The 10-year yield is down today after testing the top of the F-flag on Friday.

    It's not always easy to trust the Monday morning moves, but stocks seem to like the combination today.

    The S-fund is making new high but also testing the top of its channel today...

    Tom
    Market Commentary | My Blog | TSP Talk Plus | |

    I am not a Registered Investment Advisor. Please do your own due diligence.

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  15. #4760

    Default Re: tsptalk's Market Talk

    Consumer Confidence and new home sales both topped expectations, helping push the already excited stocks market indices higher again.

    The melt up seems to be here and the question is whether to chase if you're out, take profits if you're in, or just ride the wave.

    The dollar and yields are both up slightly with the dollar hanging around that old gap area. The 10-year fell early but seemed to bounce back after the 10 AM ET economic reports mentioned above.




    Oil is up again and over $84/ barrel, and it is kind of interesting that this isn't more of a drag on the stock market considering it was about $47 a barrel to start the year.

    Tom
    Market Commentary | My Blog | TSP Talk Plus | |

    I am not a Registered Investment Advisor. Please do your own due diligence.

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  17. #4761

    Default Re: tsptalk's Market Talk

    Market movers Microsoft and Alphabet (Google) report after the bell today.
    Tom
    Market Commentary | My Blog | TSP Talk Plus | |

    I am not a Registered Investment Advisor. Please do your own due diligence.


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  19. #4762

    Default Re: tsptalk's Market Talk

    Early action: Yields are falling and the 10-year is testing the bottom of the F-flag.

    The dollar is giving up Tuesday's gains.




    The S&P 500 is flat showing some decent resilience considering yesterday's negative reversal day, and how extended it is.

    The small caps are lagging this morning as the big old open gap may be finally drawing some attention.

    Tom
    Market Commentary | My Blog | TSP Talk Plus | |

    I am not a Registered Investment Advisor. Please do your own due diligence.

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  21. #4763

    Default Re: tsptalk's Market Talk

    Yields up, dollar breaks down from the bear flag. Surprisingly, gold, silver, and oil aren't doing much despite a huge move in the dollar.

    Stocks like it, but they seem to like everything these days -- dollar up, dollar down, yields up, yields down.

    Tom
    Market Commentary | My Blog | TSP Talk Plus | |

    I am not a Registered Investment Advisor. Please do your own due diligence.

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  23. #4764

    Default Re: tsptalk's Market Talk

    Do or die for the dollar rally?

    Tom
    Market Commentary | My Blog | TSP Talk Plus | |

    I am not a Registered Investment Advisor. Please do your own due diligence.

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