Yet another gap on the dollar - that's 5 open gaps below the current price. Yield are down after a slight pop higher on the ADP report.
Oil down, yields down, and the dollar up are giving small caps a rough go this morning.
The dollar and yields are up. The dollar filled in Monday's open gap, opening yet another gap on the downside. I count 5 now open below the current level.
I'm surprised stocks are doing so well with the 10-year jumping back over 1.5%.
Several indices are testing overhear resistance right now, including a big rally in the Transports which puts it back up near its 50 and 100-day EMAs.
We probably need to see a follow through day tomorrow, assuming the rally hold into the afternoon, otherwise this could be another bull trap rally.
Tom
Market Commentary | My Blog | TSP Talk Plus | |
I am not a Registered Investment Advisor and this is not investment advice. Please do your own due diligence.
Yet another gap on the dollar - that's 5 open gaps below the current price. Yield are down after a slight pop higher on the ADP report.
Oil down, yields down, and the dollar up are giving small caps a rough go this morning.
Tom
Market Commentary | My Blog | TSP Talk Plus | |
I am not a Registered Investment Advisor and this is not investment advice. Please do your own due diligence.
Early action: Stocks gap up, the 10-year yields moves up on better than expected weekly jobless claims, and the dollar is down.
Possible deal in DC for the debt ceiling is being talked about on Wall Street.
Tom
Market Commentary | My Blog | TSP Talk Plus | |
I am not a Registered Investment Advisor and this is not investment advice. Please do your own due diligence.
Yields up again, and I see that may be causing the Nasdaq to lag this morning. The dollar is down and commodities are up.
Tom
Market Commentary | My Blog | TSP Talk Plus | |
I am not a Registered Investment Advisor and this is not investment advice. Please do your own due diligence.
So far we have a negative outside reversal day in the S&P 500, but that could change with a strong close.
Oil is over $81 a barrel this morning and at some point the stock market will reject this.
Tom
Market Commentary | My Blog | TSP Talk Plus | |
I am not a Registered Investment Advisor and this is not investment advice. Please do your own due diligence.
Yields and the dollar are fairly flat this morning. Stocks are mixed with small caps and the Transports leading, Nasdaq lagging.
The retail sector is dong OK today as well, but it has been struggling in recent months. We get the retail sales report on Friday, and that could be interesting with the recent worker shortage.
Also, if you missed it in today's commentary...
"This week will be a BIG week as far as inflation data goes, so it could be an interesting week for the stock and bond markets. Here's the economic data lineup according to briefing.com:"
Oct 13
08:30 ET: CPI
For: Sep | Forecast: 0.3% | Cons: 0.3% | Prior: 0.3%
08:30 ET: Core CPI
For: Sep | Forecast: 0.3% | Cons: 0.3% | Prior: 0.1%
10:30 ET: EIA Crude Oil Inventories
For: 10/09 | Forecast: NA | Cons: NA | Prior: +2.35M
14:00 ET: FOMC Minutes
Oct 14
08:30 ET: PPI
For: Sep | Forecast: 0.6% | Cons: 0.6% | Prior: 0.7%
08:30 ET: Core PPI
For: Sep | Forecast: 0.5% | Cons: 0.5% | Prior: 0.6%
08:30 ET: Initial Claims
For: 10/09 | Forecast: 323K | Cons: 332K | Prior: 326K08:30 ET: Continuing Claims
For: 10/02 | Forecast: NA | Cons: NA | Prior: 2.714M
Oct 15
08:30 ET: Retail Sales
For: Sep | Forecast: -0.5% | Cons: -0.3% | Prior: 0.7%
08:30 ET: Retail Sales ex-auto
For: Sep | Forecast: 0.6% | Cons: 0.4% | Prior: 1.8%
10:00 ET: Univ. of Michigan Consumer Sentiment - Prelim
For: Oct | Forecast: 73.0 | Cons: 73.5 | Prior: 72.8
Tom
Market Commentary | My Blog | TSP Talk Plus | |
I am not a Registered Investment Advisor and this is not investment advice. Please do your own due diligence.
Stocks are mixed after a CPI report that was a little hotter than expected (0.3% vs. 0.4% expected), although the core CPI (excludes food and energy), was a littler lighter than expected (0.2% vs. 0.3% expected).
Yields are down on that - for some reason, and that is helping big tech bounce back today, but the rest of the market is struggling a little more with modest losses so far in the S&P 500 and small caps, although they are bouncing around quite a bit.
The dollar is down and the inflationary CPI is also popping commodity prices this morning with gold up about $30 (2%) and silver up $0.67 (3%).
Tom
Market Commentary | My Blog | TSP Talk Plus | |
I am not a Registered Investment Advisor and this is not investment advice. Please do your own due diligence.
Yields are down and the dollar is flat. Stocks rallying on BOA earnings, but the momentum from yesterday's positive reversal has something to do with it. We'll see if it can hold.
The Russell 2000 futures have gone almost straight up since 2:45 AM on 10/12 (about 30 hours) and that's a move from 2194 to 2267, or 3.3%. Could be getting overbought in the short-term.
Tom
Market Commentary | My Blog | TSP Talk Plus | |
I am not a Registered Investment Advisor and this is not investment advice. Please do your own due diligence.
Darn, I'm mostly missing this tide change for the week, as my IFT attempt a couple days ago was 0901 PDT, I was in meetings though IFT time yesterday, and don't want to chase it now. Good luck to y'all.
Momentum is on the bulls' side but with yields popping back up this morning on the strong retail sales number, we could see some pressure on the Nasdaq before the day is done. If that happens will the other indices come down in sympathy or will it just be more rotation?
The dollar is down a bit, as are the High Yield Corporate Bonds, so there is a possible set up for some afternoon selling, or Monday selling. The dip buying FOMO people are lurking. Overbought or FOMO? Who will win in the coming days?
The small caps of the Russell 2000 are testing recent highs again. Will this finally breakout, or is another trip down to support next?
Tom
Market Commentary | My Blog | TSP Talk Plus | |
I am not a Registered Investment Advisor and this is not investment advice. Please do your own due diligence.
Early Monday action:
Stocks are looking for directions after a slow start and an attempt at a rebound.
The yield on the 10-year T-note gapped up to a new multi-month high before backing up again and looking to fill that gap. The F-flag is in play.
High Yield Corp. Bonds gapped down below the 200-day EMA after Friday's sell off. Possibly a concern here.
Tom
Market Commentary | My Blog | TSP Talk Plus | |
I am not a Registered Investment Advisor and this is not investment advice. Please do your own due diligence.
The early actions has the dollar down hard, and the 10-year yield back over 1.6%.
Stocks are up solidly in the opening hour, although the small caps of the Russell are flat and lagging for a 3rd day.
Tom
Market Commentary | My Blog | TSP Talk Plus | |
I am not a Registered Investment Advisor and this is not investment advice. Please do your own due diligence.
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