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Thread: tsptalk's Market Talk

  1. #4741

    Default Re: tsptalk's Market Talk

    The dollar and yields are up. The dollar filled in Monday's open gap, opening yet another gap on the downside. I count 5 now open below the current level.

    I'm surprised stocks are doing so well with the 10-year jumping back over 1.5%.




    Several indices are testing overhear resistance right now, including a big rally in the Transports which puts it back up near its 50 and 100-day EMAs.




    We probably need to see a follow through day tomorrow, assuming the rally hold into the afternoon, otherwise this could be another bull trap rally.
    Tom
    Market Commentary | My Blog | TSP Talk Plus | |

    I am not a Registered Investment Advisor. Do your own due diligence.

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  3. #4742

    Default Re: tsptalk's Market Talk

    Yet another gap on the dollar - that's 5 open gaps below the current price. Yield are down after a slight pop higher on the ADP report.

    Oil down, yields down, and the dollar up are giving small caps a rough go this morning.

    Tom
    Market Commentary | My Blog | TSP Talk Plus | |

    I am not a Registered Investment Advisor. Do your own due diligence.

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  5. #4743

    Default Re: tsptalk's Market Talk

    Early action: Stocks gap up, the 10-year yields moves up on better than expected weekly jobless claims, and the dollar is down.

    Possible deal in DC for the debt ceiling is being talked about on Wall Street.

    Tom
    Market Commentary | My Blog | TSP Talk Plus | |

    I am not a Registered Investment Advisor. Do your own due diligence.


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  7. #4744

    Default Re: tsptalk's Market Talk

    Yields up again, and I see that may be causing the Nasdaq to lag this morning. The dollar is down and commodities are up.

    Tom
    Market Commentary | My Blog | TSP Talk Plus | |

    I am not a Registered Investment Advisor. Do your own due diligence.

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  9. #4745

    Default Re: tsptalk's Market Talk

    So far we have a negative outside reversal day in the S&P 500, but that could change with a strong close.

    Oil is over $81 a barrel this morning and at some point the stock market will reject this.
    Tom
    Market Commentary | My Blog | TSP Talk Plus | |

    I am not a Registered Investment Advisor. Do your own due diligence.

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  11. #4746

    Default Re: tsptalk's Market Talk

    Yields and the dollar are fairly flat this morning. Stocks are mixed with small caps and the Transports leading, Nasdaq lagging.

    The retail sector is dong OK today as well, but it has been struggling in recent months. We get the retail sales report on Friday, and that could be interesting with the recent worker shortage.




    Also, if you missed it in today's commentary...

    "This week will be a BIG week as far as inflation data goes, so it could be an interesting week for the stock and bond markets. Here's the economic data lineup according to briefing.com:"

    Oct 13
    08:30 ET: CPI
    For: Sep | Forecast: 0.3% | Cons: 0.3% | Prior: 0.3%

    08:30 ET: Core CPI
    For: Sep | Forecast: 0.3% | Cons: 0.3% | Prior: 0.1%

    10:30 ET: EIA Crude Oil Inventories
    For: 10/09 | Forecast: NA | Cons: NA | Prior: +2.35M

    14:00 ET: FOMC Minutes

    Oct 14
    08:30 ET: PPI
    For: Sep | Forecast: 0.6% | Cons: 0.6% | Prior: 0.7%

    08:30 ET: Core PPI
    For: Sep | Forecast: 0.5% | Cons: 0.5% | Prior: 0.6%

    08:30 ET: Initial Claims
    For: 10/09 | Forecast: 323K | Cons: 332K | Prior: 326K08:30 ET: Continuing Claims
    For: 10/02 | Forecast: NA | Cons: NA | Prior: 2.714M

    Oct 15
    08:30 ET: Retail Sales
    For: Sep | Forecast: -0.5% | Cons: -0.3% | Prior: 0.7%

    08:30 ET: Retail Sales ex-auto
    For: Sep | Forecast: 0.6% | Cons: 0.4% | Prior: 1.8%

    10:00 ET: Univ. of Michigan Consumer Sentiment - Prelim
    For: Oct | Forecast: 73.0 | Cons: 73.5 | Prior: 72.8
    Tom
    Market Commentary | My Blog | TSP Talk Plus | |

    I am not a Registered Investment Advisor. Do your own due diligence.

  12.  
  13. #4747

    Default Re: tsptalk's Market Talk


    Stocks are mixed after a CPI report that was a little hotter than expected (0.3% vs. 0.4% expected), although the core CPI (excludes food and energy), was a littler lighter than expected (0.2% vs. 0.3% expected).

    Yields are down on that - for some reason, and that is helping big tech bounce back today, but the rest of the market is struggling a little more with modest losses so far in the S&P 500 and small caps, although they are bouncing around quite a bit.



    The dollar is down and the inflationary CPI is also popping commodity prices this morning with gold up about $30 (2%) and silver up $0.67 (3%).

    Tom
    Market Commentary | My Blog | TSP Talk Plus | |

    I am not a Registered Investment Advisor. Do your own due diligence.

  14.  
  15. #4748

    Default Re: tsptalk's Market Talk

    Yields are down and the dollar is flat. Stocks rallying on BOA earnings, but the momentum from yesterday's positive reversal has something to do with it. We'll see if it can hold.

    The Russell 2000 futures have gone almost straight up since 2:45 AM on 10/12 (about 30 hours) and that's a move from 2194 to 2267, or 3.3%. Could be getting overbought in the short-term.
    Tom
    Market Commentary | My Blog | TSP Talk Plus | |

    I am not a Registered Investment Advisor. Do your own due diligence.

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  17. #4749

    Join Date
    May 2007
    Location
    Washington State
    Posts
    155

    Default Re: tsptalk's Market Talk

    Darn, I'm mostly missing this tide change for the week, as my IFT attempt a couple days ago was 0901 PDT, I was in meetings though IFT time yesterday, and don't want to chase it now. Good luck to y'all.

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  19. #4750

    Default Re: tsptalk's Market Talk

    Momentum is on the bulls' side but with yields popping back up this morning on the strong retail sales number, we could see some pressure on the Nasdaq before the day is done. If that happens will the other indices come down in sympathy or will it just be more rotation?

    The dollar is down a bit, as are the High Yield Corporate Bonds, so there is a possible set up for some afternoon selling, or Monday selling. The dip buying FOMO people are lurking. Overbought or FOMO? Who will win in the coming days?




    The small caps of the Russell 2000 are testing recent highs again. Will this finally breakout, or is another trip down to support next?

    Tom
    Market Commentary | My Blog | TSP Talk Plus | |

    I am not a Registered Investment Advisor. Do your own due diligence.

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