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Thread: tsptalk's Market Talk

  1. #4717

    Default Re: tsptalk's Market Talk

    The dollar is down and yields are up to start this trading day.

    Stocks are bouncing toward the large open gaps from Monday morning, which are a magnet, but all of it is below the 50-day EMA so 4425 will be obvious roadblock for any relief rally. The "V" bottom is still possible, but we'll have to see if the bears are selling this morning strength. So far the y are, but it's early so it's tough to declare a victor until the close today.

    Tom
    Market Commentary | My Blog | TSP Talk Plus | |

    I am not a Registered Investment Advisor and this is not investment advice. Please do your own due diligence.

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  3. #4718

    Join Date
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    Default Re: tsptalk's Market Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by mmk119 View Post
    I took the leap also. hopefully not too soon. What happened with Evergrande is in conjunction with an expectation of a pullback, Fed meeting, fiscal year, et. al. Evergrande still has two weeks of running capital; the government isn't going to default or shutdown; and the Fed is going to protect its investments. So, i'm feeling this is not the big pullback - that is coming later this year or early next - at least that's how i'm investing. so, sticky pants deployed and depends on order.
    I like the way you're thinking!!!
    Scott Harrison
    Senatobia, MS

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  5. #4719

    Default Re: tsptalk's Market Talk

    Thank you rangerray. We'll see if we made the right decision.
    i'd really like to get info from the fed today, along with this week's and next weeks FAAIM results to get a better look ahead.
    who said "waiting is the hardest part"... Captain obvious? ha ha ha

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  7. #4720

    Default Re: tsptalk's Market Talk

    Early action:

    Stocks rally in front of FOMC policy statement this afternoon. Typical action, but can it hold if there is a tapering announced - and the technical picture is improving, but resistance is close.

    The S&P and small caps charts are racing to fill those open gaps. Both are below the 50-day EMA, which is also near the tops of those gaps, so that will be important resistance.




    The dollar is bouncing back while yields are flat.

    Tom
    Market Commentary | My Blog | TSP Talk Plus | |

    I am not a Registered Investment Advisor and this is not investment advice. Please do your own due diligence.

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  9. #4721

    Default Re: tsptalk's Market Talk

    Is this a contrarian buy signal, or a warning for caution?


    Investors believe it’s time to get very conservative in the stock market, CNBC survey shows


    https://www.cnbc.com/2021/09/22/inve...vey-shows.html

    Tom
    Market Commentary | My Blog | TSP Talk Plus | |

    I am not a Registered Investment Advisor and this is not investment advice. Please do your own due diligence.

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  11. #4722

    Default Re: tsptalk's Market Talk

    FedEx is weighing heavily on the transports today, which are not participating in today's rally.

    Tom
    Market Commentary | My Blog | TSP Talk Plus | |

    I am not a Registered Investment Advisor and this is not investment advice. Please do your own due diligence.

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  13. #4723

    Default Re: tsptalk's Market Talk

    The yield on the 10 year is testing the upper limits of its recent range.




    The dollar filled that gap yesterday, then flipped over . This is what I though could happen on the S&P and DWCPF charts. But no...




    The stock indices blasted right through the tough resistance this morning.

    Tom
    Market Commentary | My Blog | TSP Talk Plus | |

    I am not a Registered Investment Advisor and this is not investment advice. Please do your own due diligence.

  14.  
  15. #4724

    Join Date
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    Default Re: tsptalk's Market Talk

    It's hard to be bullish when the transports have made new lows.

    Sentiment is leaning bullish though and with this big jump today it seems many were caught on the wrong side of things (2x inverse, cash) trying to cover or get back in. A close above the 50 DMA will switch many systems back to a buy from sell.

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  17. #4725

    Default Re: tsptalk's Market Talk

    Spiking yields are spooking the big tech stocks as the Nasdaq turns down sharply. Interestingly, small caps are benefiting for some reason as investors don't seem to want to sell everything.

    The dollar is also up making the rally in small caps that much more impressive this morning. We'll see if that can hold if pressure continues on Naz and S&P.

    Tom
    Market Commentary | My Blog | TSP Talk Plus | |

    I am not a Registered Investment Advisor and this is not investment advice. Please do your own due diligence.


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  19. #4726

    Join Date
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    Default Re: tsptalk's Market Talk

    Black candle though in TNX and those almost always are a prequel to a turn lower.

    TNX candle.png

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  21. #4727

    Default Re: tsptalk's Market Talk

    It hasn't been in an uptrend in a while, so for now I will assume that the black candle was the result of trying to fill Monday morning's open gap. The support test will come on a pullback to the 1.38% area, which would fill in Friday's gap too. But yeah, those spinning tops can mean a short term reversal.
    Tom
    Market Commentary | My Blog | TSP Talk Plus | |

    I am not a Registered Investment Advisor and this is not investment advice. Please do your own due diligence.

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  23. #4728

    Default Re: tsptalk's Market Talk

    The 10-Yr Yield is trading at 1.539% right now so stocks may get cranky this morning.

    This chart says 1.531% and may be delayed a bit.

    Tom
    Market Commentary | My Blog | TSP Talk Plus | |

    I am not a Registered Investment Advisor and this is not investment advice. Please do your own due diligence.

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