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Thread: tsptalk's Market Talk

  1. #4705

    Default Re: tsptalk's Market Talk

    Stocks gapped up after a better than expected CPI report, but the gains aren't holding 30 minutes into the trading day.

    The dollar and yields are falling, with the dollar trying to find support at a moving average.




    The S-fund is trying to hang onto that 50-day average...




    Attachment 50943
    Tom
    Market Commentary | My Blog | TSP Talk Plus | |

    I am not a Registered Investment Advisor. Do your own due diligence.

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  3. #4706

    Default Re: tsptalk's Market Talk

    A lot of volatility this morning as the indices hover around break even and alternate between being up and down.

    Apple is clinging to that 50 day EMA and the support line, and whichever way it breaks, the entire market may follow.




    The dollar is down, yields are up. The Nasdaq is lagging. Oil is flying, up $2.40.
    Tom
    Market Commentary | My Blog | TSP Talk Plus | |

    I am not a Registered Investment Advisor. Do your own due diligence.

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  5. #4707

    Default Re: tsptalk's Market Talk

    Everything seems to have held support today, but the S&P 500 will have to take out its 20-day average to keep the bounce going. That is something that it has had no problem doing in prior pullbacks. Could make the difference.

    Tom
    Market Commentary | My Blog | TSP Talk Plus | |

    I am not a Registered Investment Advisor. Do your own due diligence.


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  7. #4708

    Join Date
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    Default Re: tsptalk's Market Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by tsptalk View Post
    the S&P 500 will have to take out its 20-day average to keep the bounce going.
    check.JPG

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  9. #4709

    Default Re: tsptalk's Market Talk

    The dollar is rallying sharply putting pressure on almost everything.




    The small caps are back below the 50-day EMA, so no follow through yet to Wednesday's rally.




    Yields are up (bonds and the F-fund down) but the 100-day average has been stubborn in recent weeks..

    Tom
    Market Commentary | My Blog | TSP Talk Plus | |

    I am not a Registered Investment Advisor. Do your own due diligence.

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  11. #4710

    Default Re: tsptalk's Market Talk

    The 10-year is popping above resistance, and the dollar is up big again helping keeping pressure on prices. The small caps chart looks quite intriguing, but this action in yields and the dollar could be putting pressure on the Fed again to raise rates if it continues. That would not go over well. And again, the seasonality chart looks really bad for next week, but since everybody knows that, maybe we should expect the opposite? Just thinking out loud.

    Tom
    Market Commentary | My Blog | TSP Talk Plus | |

    I am not a Registered Investment Advisor. Do your own due diligence.

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  13. #4711

    Default Re: tsptalk's Market Talk

    Tom
    Market Commentary | My Blog | TSP Talk Plus | |

    I am not a Registered Investment Advisor. Do your own due diligence.

  14.  
  15. #4712

    Default Re: tsptalk's Market Talk

    The S&P 500 opened with a gap below the 50-day EMA this morning. Another average is holding now, similar to March, but it's early. Sometimes the first push against a support line holds, brings in buyers, but fails on the next attempt, so be careful trying to pick a low too soon. You could get lucky, but it's rarely easy.

    Two things the market does after a major sell off to frustrate traders... it goes back up too quickly, or rallies fail and new lows continue to be made... so basically everything.




    The dollar is on the move again, staring to fill in the overhead gap.

    Tom
    Market Commentary | My Blog | TSP Talk Plus | |

    I am not a Registered Investment Advisor. Do your own due diligence.

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  17. #4713

    Default Re: tsptalk's Market Talk

    A six month low for the Transports this morning.

    Tom
    Market Commentary | My Blog | TSP Talk Plus | |

    I am not a Registered Investment Advisor. Do your own due diligence.

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  19. #4714

    Default Re: tsptalk's Market Talk

    S-fund gaps on the downside are filled (blue), and one new one opened overhead (red.) You can see the support line rising and getting close, but the 200-day EMA, if in play, is still way down below the current level.

    Tom
    Market Commentary | My Blog | TSP Talk Plus | |

    I am not a Registered Investment Advisor. Do your own due diligence.

  20.  
  21. #4715

    Join Date
    Aug 2011
    Location
    Mississippi
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    596

    Default Re: tsptalk's Market Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by tsptalk View Post
    The S&P 500 opened with a gap below the 50-day EMA this morning. Another average is holding now, similar to March, but it's early. Sometimes the first push against a support line holds, brings in buyers, but fails on the next attempt, so be careful trying to pick a low too soon. You could get lucky, but it's rarely easy.
    Too late. I’ve done done it. tsptalk's Market Talk



    Sent from my iPhone using TSP Talk Forums
    Scott Harrison
    Senatobia, MS

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  23. #4716

    Default Re: tsptalk's Market Talk

    I took the leap also. hopefully not too soon. What happened with Evergrande is in conjunction with an expectation of a pullback, Fed meeting, fiscal year, et. al. Evergrande still has two weeks of running capital; the government isn't going to default or shutdown; and the Fed is going to protect its investments. So, i'm feeling this is not the big pullback - that is coming later this year or early next - at least that's how i'm investing. so, sticky pants deployed and depends on order.


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