Thread: tsptalk's Market Talk

It looks like the stay home economy stocks are lagging today after a big day yesterday (FUBO, ZM, etc.). Today it's the "go out and play" stocks working like MGM, cruise, oil, and other travel related companies.

I think that's the smart play for money going forward. Easy money has already been made in tech, EV, etc. Why jump on a trade that is so crowded when many activities will resume?

Are we really supposed to think people are going to stop traveling, going to sports events, going to large concerts? I don't, especially with savings levels, vaccine distributions, and COVID fatigue levels rising.

New highs for credit market ETF (HYG).

Bonds (BND) fill the open gap below and reverse.

The dollar continues its bounce - for some reason. Are investors worried about the stimulus?

A few centrist dems don't really see this stimulus being as critical as it was two months ago and $1.9T will be near impossible to pass.

On the other hand, markets keep marching higher despite the stimulus very likely being less than $1.9T. Seems there are more companies giving forward guidance this time around which is something many avoided in 2020, and by most accounts, the future looks bright.

Most commodities have been hit, but oil marches upward. Inflation signals are mixed.

Maybe that very quick 9% correction was the buying opportunity many had been waiting for after the November 2020 run up.

Sounds reasonable given the dollar's actions. But did I miss a 9% correction? I think it was more like half that?

Yes, you are correct, more like half that. It sure wasn't much of a buying window time wise. Jan 25 = 3855 >>> Jan 29 = 3714 >>> Feb 4 = ~3860.

I've heard some "pros" say that machines are so aggressive at buying dips now that the opportunities are not as long lasting. I'm not sure what the time frame is on that, if we're talking years or just since March. There does seem to be a constant bid under the market since March. Bad news in one area is overshadowed by good news in another.

I’m thinking the buying opportunity is a two-hour window, between 1 pm and 3 pm, once every 18 days.

This is crazy, and not sustainable. But I’m 100% in, so what the heck!


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Perhaps the "sell the news" opportunity comes just before the stimulus figure is confirmed?

Where this closes will make a difference - above or below that resistance line.




The dollar is rolling over, but the 50-dat EMA may be there to catch it...

Trouble for the dollar again?

Is it just me, or is this weekly S-fund chart just getting comical at this point...