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Thread: tsptalk's Market Talk

  1. #4393

    Join Date
    May 2007
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    Washington State
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    Default Re: tsptalk's Market Talk

    My take... I think a lot of retired TSP-ers who are more involved & knowing about investing do just that (roll-over $s out of TSP to IRA). I plan to do so, trying to decide how much and when to roll Traditional TSP into Roth IRA (& pay those taxes at that time). I'll keep some significant amount in TSP though, more so now after TSP withdrawal restrictions were eased a great deal a couple years ago. Also, there is no "cash" alternative to the G-fund - or tell me what that is (unless they toy with it and substantially decrease its return, as they've talked about seriously). Plus the Administrative costs for TSP is relatively low. Yes, I dislike the lack of investment choice in TSP, & particularly the IFT limits of time of day & #per month.

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  3. #4394

    Default Re: tsptalk's Market Talk

    Tesla is up another 7.5% today to 877. Why not, huh? P/E is now about 1700. Estimated 1 year price target $450.

    Tesla is now in the S&P 500 and I believe it's the 5th largest weighted stock in the index, so if you want to know what's pushing the S&P higher...

    Tom
    Market Commentary | My Blog | TSP Talk Plus | |

    I am not a Registered Investment Advisor. Do your own due diligence.

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  5. #4395

    Join Date
    Sep 2006
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    Upstate NY
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    Default Re: tsptalk's Market Talk

    Crazy. Maybe this will finally be an island reversal gap as the last buyers get in.

    Bitcoin actually doing the same thing as TSLA, but people tell me bitcoin is undervalued by some $100,000.

    tslabtc.JPG

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  7. #4396

    Default Re: tsptalk's Market Talk

    I'm retired Law Enforcement, taking withdrawals penalty free, not 59.5 yet.

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  9. #4397

    Default Re: tsptalk's Market Talk

    A few of the not so obvious things I'm watching. HYG is in day two of a breakdown. 3 to 5 would confirm it for me.

    The yield on the 10-year has been popping recently after the December consolidation. Good sign for the economy, but the stock market may not like it as much.




    The price of lumber has been a good "tell" for stocks, and today if fell through its 50-day EMA. This is yesterday's closing chart and I added today's decline.

    Tom
    Market Commentary | My Blog | TSP Talk Plus | |

    I am not a Registered Investment Advisor. Do your own due diligence.

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  11. #4398

    Join Date
    Mar 2006
    Location
    Raleigh, NC
    Posts
    3,149

    Default Re: tsptalk's Market Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by losingmoney View Post
    I am definitely watching that dollar. Went to F today to lock in the gains. Probably will regret it tomorrow. But I do have a question. Why would people not just move their money out of TSP and into a direct rollover in E*TRADE? Then just buy the spy or whatever etf they wanted. Or stock. Then you can move as often as you want instead of twice a month. Just seems to make since to me, I could be completely wrong. Have not done anything yet. But looking into it.


    Sent from my iPhone using TSP Talk Forums
    You can't.

    The best you can do is roll-over it to another retirement account such as a Traditional IRA. You can do that when you quit or when you retire.

    Also, while I am not certain of the trading expenses I would bet that the annual expenses for TSP are significantly less than E*Trade. That doesn't mean your idea is bad - I will do it on either quitting or retiring. But, it does mean that you will have to have a greater return to overcome the additional fees. I think the TSP annual expenses are something like 0.17%.
    Lookin' up at the 'G Fund'!!!

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  13. Default Re: tsptalk's Market Talk

    A bit old but still gives an idea.

    https://federalnewsnetwork.com/mike-...78000-mistake/

    In my case, I am close to retiring (<2 yrs). What I read There are couple of major points that can/will effect my final decision. But I will not close out my TSP.

    From what I read, and hopefully readers will correct if wrong,

    1) your 401K is protected from bankruptcy and lawsuits while IRA's are not. So if you move out of TSP into an IRA you could leave yourself vulnerable. As many posters here and on the net point out, you can transfer your TSP (but not close account) into a brokerage, do what you need to do, then transfer back into TSP. I am working on trying to fully understand the details and steps on this so I can do a backdoor Roth. Then bring it all back onto TSP (I think - see #2).

    2) I am a widower, so when I die, my TSP will be cashed out, closed and sent to my beneficiaries in a lump check. Not sure if taxes are taken out or not on them. Of course your beneficiaries can have a "Beneficiary" account open(ed) and have the money sent there. But they will have to deal with the Secure Act in RMD's.

    Golfer

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  15. #4400

    Join Date
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    Default tsptalk's Market Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by Boghie View Post
    I think the TSP annual expenses are something like 0.17%.
    The TSP annual expense ratio USED to be much lower prior to 2008ís move to restrict TSP interfund transfers. .

    Since they limited trades to two per month, TSP net annual expense costs have doubled. Last year the net Annual Expense Rate of the TSP funds was 0.42%.

    Thatís still a relatively very low cost, but has moved closer to other types of investments. Itís not as inexpensive as it used to be, or could be, if they simply allowed more frequent moves.


    Sent from my iPhone using TSP Talk Forums

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  17. #4401

    Default Re: tsptalk's Market Talk

    Back in the channel, so perhaps considered a failed breakout - but the 20-day EMA is holding yet again.




    Nothing serious is in the S-fund, but a few cracks showing...

    Tom
    Market Commentary | My Blog | TSP Talk Plus | |

    I am not a Registered Investment Advisor. Do your own due diligence.


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  19. #4402

    Default Re: tsptalk's Market Talk

    This morning's spike higher filled Friday's open gap (red), and created another open gap (blue), although that's one of those "stealth" gaps that don't show up as easily so the lore to get filled may not be as strong.

    Tom
    Market Commentary | My Blog | TSP Talk Plus | |

    I am not a Registered Investment Advisor. Do your own due diligence.

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  21. #4403

    Default Re: tsptalk's Market Talk

    Big tech is sure percolating in front of their earnings after long consolidations.

    Apple and Microsoft report this week, and Amazon next week.

    Apple is breaking out this morning, Microsoft too, while Amazon is up again its resistance.

    Netflix is on the bottom. It broke out after earnings last week but has since pulled back, perhaps eying that big open gap.





    Tom
    Market Commentary | My Blog | TSP Talk Plus | |

    I am not a Registered Investment Advisor. Do your own due diligence.

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  23. #4404

    Join Date
    Dec 2004
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    1,698

    Default Re: tsptalk's Market Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by tsptalk View Post
    Big tech is sure percolating in front of their earnings after long consolidations.

    Apple and Microsoft report this week, and Amazon next week.

    Apple is breaking out this morning, Microsoft too, while Amazon is up again its resistance.

    Netflix is on the bottom. It broke out after earnings last week but has since pulled back, perhaps eying that big open gap.





    something flash-crashy is going on, past 10 minutes or so. SPAC bubble pop, hedge fund manipulation?

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