Thread: tsptalk's Market Talk

Originally Posted by tsptalk

Credit market: Bullish flag or flat top?

TradingView shows that November 9th candle high at 86.90, which matches perfectly with the flat top. https://www.tradingview.com/x/zI6WhPGG/

Originally Posted by bmneveu

TradingView shows that November 9th candle high at 86.90, which matches perfectly with the flat top. https://www.tradingview.com/x/zI6WhPGG/

Interesting. That might make it a bullish cup and handle formation?

They're killing the dollar, which of course raises prices. Stocks, bitcoin, housing, etc., without any "solid" fundamental reason for them going up except for the weak dollar. Gold is surprising not going up as much, which is interesting given that it tends to go up when inflation concerns hit.




Stocks up today, for what - the 80th time - on more stimulus hopes. Spending more of our tax money that doesn't really exist yet. Killing the dollar. How often can stocks rally on the same rumor?

Agree! The most worrisome is housing, I still have memories of 2008. The ripple effect of any housing market downturn will once again be extraordinary. People are paying 3-4x more per square foot than what we bought for in the same neighborhood 15 years ago. The buyers today aren't getting a good deal as the mania has swept so many up.

I think bitcoin is just a "Robinhood" thing as not many have more than a trifling sum invested there. Having 5% of your investments in it won't make much difference in the long and those who brag to be millionaires on twitter have no concept of what risk really is. Luckily most of us saved appropriately over the years and don't have to try to shoot the moon on a wild speculation of digits on a hard drive.

The likely response is Fed hedges their answer as to when QE Infinity ends. They could say, "we're going to ease until the pandemic is over." That can be tomorrow or... really infinity.

If they come out and say we're going to increase purchases but only until June 2021, then the market could throw a tantrum.

Either way, the bugs kept saying the dollar collapse would help gold. It hasn't, so maybe inflation isn't as big a problem as some think.

New lows for the dollar. (Bitcoin soaring)

Quadruple Witching Day. Plus index rebalancing.

A little gap filling by the dollar adding to the pressure on stocks today, but there's still a lot of resistance near the top of that gap.

Is I-Fund a good option at new lows for dollar?

The dollar was popping up some today, and "may" be breaking the downtrend - too early to say. I suppose this will depend on how contained this "new strain" is to European countries.

As the indices get closer to break even for the day, the hard part begins. Traders who were caught in the downdraft become relieved that they recouped those big morning losses and could start selling again.

Of course that's in a normal market environment. This recent rush to get in stocks in late 2020 may make this a different situation, but just pointing out that if this bounce is going to run out of steam today, it may be here near break even. I hope I'm wrong.

You and BM noted the basing in HYG a few weeks ago and that pattern appears to still be in play.

How much of today is due to the S&P re-balancing plus year end institutional re-balancing? If markets finish flat or close to, I'd say that's a very good reason. No doubt there are dip buyers out there though.