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Thread: tsptalk's Market Talk

  1. #4333

    Default Re: tsptalk's Market Talk

    The 10-year yield is still trying to fill that open gap, and is down today on the weaker than expected jobless numbers.

    Tom
    Market Commentary | My Blog | TSP Talk Plus | |

    I am not a Registered Investment Advisor. Do your own due diligence.

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  3. #4334

    Default Re: tsptalk's Market Talk

    As goes credit, so goes the stock market. This is a tough read with that bear flag there, but it's holding above that old blue resistance line.

    Tom
    Market Commentary | My Blog | TSP Talk Plus | |

    I am not a Registered Investment Advisor. Do your own due diligence.

  4.  
  5. #4335

    Default Re: tsptalk's Market Talk

    How important is today's close? A negative close would create a negative outside reversal day, which would be bearish for the short-term. A close near the highs makes it a positive outside reversal day, which would be quite bullish for the short-term. Anything in the middle and we're left guessing with a spinning top.

    Tom
    Market Commentary | My Blog | TSP Talk Plus | |

    I am not a Registered Investment Advisor. Do your own due diligence.

  6.  
  7. #4336

    Join Date
    Apr 2008
    Location
    Cleveland, Ohio
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    10,652

    Default Re: tsptalk's Market Talk

    Do you think the Oxford University results on their vaccine may have something to do with the market?
    May the force be with us.

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  9. #4337

    Default Re: tsptalk's Market Talk

    Double bottom or breakdown? Keep printing those bucks!

    Tom
    Market Commentary | My Blog | TSP Talk Plus | |

    I am not a Registered Investment Advisor. Do your own due diligence.

  10.  
  11. #4338

    Default Re: tsptalk's Market Talk

    Small gap still there to fill below today's low...

    Tom
    Market Commentary | My Blog | TSP Talk Plus | |

    I am not a Registered Investment Advisor. Do your own due diligence.


  12.  
  13. #4339

    Join Date
    Aug 2011
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    Default Re: tsptalk's Market Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by tsptalk View Post
    Small gap still there to fill below today's low...

    I've never been a real believer in gaps... So the markets up one day, and down the next. I don't understand the theory that the space in between them has to be filled, it just doesn't make a whole lot of sense to me. But that's just me... I mean think about it; are there people out there that say to themselves, "We need to buy more stocks ,(and maybe lose money) to fill up that gap that was left behind yesterday". Sorry, but I just don't get it. It's just a chart. It shows where it starts, and it shows where the market stopped. Millions of people traded, and billions of dollars were traded in between, are they really thinking about making those lines move up and down according to some preconceived pattern? I don't think so, they're just thinking about making money!

    Sent from my Pixel 4a using Tapatalk
    Last edited by tom4jean; 11-30-2020 at 12:02 PM.
    Expected FERS Retirement; December 2028
    Thru-hike the Appalachian trail spring 2029

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  15. #4340

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    Default Re: tsptalk's Market Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by tom4jean View Post
    I've never been a real believer in gaps... So the markets up one day, and down the next, I don't understand the theory that the space in between them has to be filled, doesn't make a whole lot of sense to me. But that's just me... I mean think about it, Are there people out there that say to themselves, "We need to buy more stocks to fill up that gap that was left behind yesterday.." Sorry but I just don't get it. It's just a chart. It shows where it starts, and it shows where the market stopped. Millions of people traded and billions of dollars were traded in between, are they really thinking about making those lines move up and down according to some preconceived pattern? I don't think so they're just thinking about making money!

    Sent from my Pixel 4a using Tapatalk
    The market gaps up or down because of light volume trading in pre market hours. The market is not in equilibrium in that time. So when the market opens and the price is siginificantly different than the day before, we get a gap. It is not natural. The theory is that the market adjusts back to equilibrium eventually. There is enough historical data that tells us gaps get filled more often than not. That's a fact. They don't always get filled, but its more than a coin flip.

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  17. #4341

    Default Re: tsptalk's Market Talk

    Breaking out or stretching the limits of this move higher?

    Tom
    Market Commentary | My Blog | TSP Talk Plus | |

    I am not a Registered Investment Advisor. Do your own due diligence.

  18.  
  19. #4342

    Default Re: tsptalk's Market Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by tom4jean View Post
    I've never been a real believer in gaps... So the markets up one day, and down the next. I don't understand the theory that the space in between them has to be filled, it just doesn't make a whole lot of sense to me. But that's just me... I mean think about it; are there people out there that say to themselves, "We need to buy more stocks ,(and maybe lose money) to fill up that gap that was left behind yesterday". Sorry, but I just don't get it. It's just a chart. It shows where it starts, and it shows where the market stopped. Millions of people traded, and billions of dollars were traded in between, are they really thinking about making those lines move up and down according to some preconceived pattern? I don't think so, they're just thinking about making money!
    It's mostly psychological, but I'm guessing there's computer algorithms involved too. Here's one theory, and if you look at charts it happens over and over again.

    One theory is the missing out part. Say stock ABC is trading at $100 a share and you've been considering buying it. One day it gaps up to $110 a share. Frustrated, you decide you want to buy it, but you're going to wait until it comes back to $100. If everybody does that, the buying will dry up until it gets back to $100. that's why they tend to get filled quickly.

    There are many reasons why they work, or shouldn't, but they just seem to work. Especially on large indices like the S&P 500. But here's a chart of Amazon (which actually looks a little suspect with that head and shoulders pattern.)

    The red gaps are all filled on this 6 month chart of AMZN. Notice how quickly they get filled. There is one tiny open gap and that's the blue one. Coincidentally(?) that would be about here the downside target would be if the head and shoulders pattern fails. And AMZN did pull back to the top of that gap, like we saw yesterday in the S&P.

    Tom
    Market Commentary | My Blog | TSP Talk Plus | |

    I am not a Registered Investment Advisor. Do your own due diligence.

  20.  
  21. #4343

    Default Re: tsptalk's Market Talk

    People trade futures at night which drives the market. The Robinhood folks were steering the market for awhile. I am going 100% C tomorrow out of the 50c50s split the S fund is getting long in the tooth and is prepping a significant correction. The C became fully imbedded and has got room to run (as the S fund has been doing for days.) The S is still above the weekly Bollinger band this is the 4th week; odds are a pullback this week.

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  23. #4344

    Default Re: tsptalk's Market Talk

    Not a deal breaker since this steep angle of incline was bound to end eventually, but this break below support in the S-fund is a yellow flag for the short-term...

    Tom
    Market Commentary | My Blog | TSP Talk Plus | |

    I am not a Registered Investment Advisor. Do your own due diligence.

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