Thread: tsptalk's Market Talk

Today's rally is an emotional one, triggered by the news of a possible remedy for the virus. Technically analysis-wise, it's a moment of truth for the S&P 500. In 2008 (the 2nd chart) showed several mini breaches of the 50 day EMA (or 200 EMA) that turned out to be fake-outs. A breakout above them is the green light I'd be waiting for but I also have an unofficial 3 to 5 day confirmation rule where any breakout has to hold that long before I trust it. That's where we are now.

So far this morning's weakness is just filling in Friday's open gap. The 50-day EMA is also right there. 2800 looks key.

A few interesting charts today...

The 10-year yield fell below the support line. If it holds it would be the 2nd lowest close ever.




Despite the free fall in oil prices, the XLE energy sector ETF is holding up surprisingly well.




The high yield bond ETF broke below that bullish looking flag (blue) and that is helping fill the large gap from earlier this month.

Thinking HYG (and JNK) is part of the oil patch horror.

Still holding up well, maybe just filling a gap here. If it breaks down it would surely indicate lost confidence in the bonds of oil companies.

Originally Posted by Bullitt

Thinking HYG (and JNK) is part of the oil patch horror.

Still holding up well, maybe just filling a gap here. If it breaks down it would surely indicate lost confidence in the bonds of oil companies.

Sure enough - oil up, stocks up, credit up.

A small gap opened on Monday is being filled today. Still below the 50-day EMA and the larger gap hasn't been filled yet.

This about sums up the market... MGM's stock is up about 10% today and their casino are not even open.

Originally Posted by tsptalk

This about sums up the market... MGM's stock is up about 10% today and their casino are not even open.

OK. I'm busted. It was me. I just put $5,000 into MGM. I'm going to try to make some of the money back they've taken from me over the years.

Bargain shopping? I mentioned MGM when it was around $10. Of course, had I bought at $10, it would be $5, or less now.

Originally Posted by tsptalk

This about sums up the market... MGM's stock is up about 10% today and their casino are not even open.

MGM stock has seen massive insider buying since March 30 - mostly in the $10-$13 range.

S&P making a beeline for the 200-day EMA...

Last time Google gapped up like this.