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Thread: tsptalk's Market Talk

  1. #4009

    Default Re: tsptalk's Market Talk

    Don't blink because it can change quickly (VIX is still near 60), but the bear flags that we were asking about in Thursday's commentary are looking less flag-like today - if the highs can hold. But there is still some descending resistance a little higher up, and open gaps below (and above on DWCPF). The question is whether they are "gap and go" type gaps as we see at some lows, or if it's a target for a retest.


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  3. #4010

    Join Date
    Nov 2009
    Location
    Petersburg, Alaska
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    430

    Default Re: tsptalk's Market Talk

    Tom...S-Fund chart at bottom of forum page shows blip up or pop up right at end of trading yet numbers went from approx 4.8% up down to 4.2%...any ideas or is it just the trading delay.
    Thanx
    E

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  5. #4011

    Default Re: tsptalk's Market Talk

    It could be the delay. If you click on that chart you'll see it closed up 5.95%.

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  7. #4012

    Default Re: tsptalk's Market Talk

    Bill Ackman says accusations he tried to drive down market in interview are ‘absurd’

    March 3: Ackman warned that hotel operator Hilton Worldwide was “going to zero ... along with every other hotel company in the world,” said that America could “end as we know it” and cautioned U.S. companies to stop their stock buyback programs because “hell is coming.”

    March 18: “I’ve been aggressively buying stocks including Hilton today. And I’ve been buying all the way down — Hilton, Restaurant Brands and Starbucks,” Ackman said on March 18.
    https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/27/bill...ng-market.html

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  9. #4013

    Default Re: tsptalk's Market Talk

    Yes but he is a great contrarian indicator, along with a few other unmentioned shills.

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  11. #4014

    Default Re: tsptalk's Market Talk

    Well THAT was a rude market close.
    A little profit taking maybe?


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  13. #4015

    Join Date
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    Default Re: tsptalk's Market Talk

    Thoughts on bonds? TLT about to make a lower high / double top. Momentum (MACD/RSI) diverging.

    tltdp.JPG

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  15. #4016

    Default Re: tsptalk's Market Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by Bullitt View Post
    Thoughts on bonds? TLT about to make a lower high / double top. Momentum (MACD/RSI) diverging.
    The AGG chart looks fine for the short-term.

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  17. #4017

    Default Re: tsptalk's Market Talk

    The S&P 500 chart has improved but sitting below resistance. It looks like it wants to be a "V". We can look at it two ways, probably more, but one is that we're still selling at a > 20% discount to the all time highs. Should we be buying that?

    The other thing is, we've had a 20% rally off the bottom and 38.2% retracement of the losses, and bear market rallied can fail in this area.

    I'm concerned about Friday's jobs report, of course, but who isn't, and is that a set up for a contrarian buy? I don't know.

    Lastly, these are some key charts to watch. HYG is a good barometer for the credit market which the stock market pays very close attention to. It may be trying to form a bull flag, but so far has stalled after filling that open gap.




    The VIX is down sharply again, but at 50+, we should expect the wide swings to continue in stocks.




    With 2 IFTs per month, and a market that could easily either gain or lose another 20% in the coming weeks, we have to make some very tough decisions, don't we?

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  19. #4018

    Default Re: tsptalk's Market Talk

    The last half hour and close today should be interesting as the final money manager portfolio rebalancing gets completed. Stocks are a lot cheaper than at the start of the quarter and bonds are higher. Most of it may have already been done, but they have to adjust that back to their prospectus stated allocations for the new quarter. It's a chess match that may end with a hockey fight.

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  21. #4019

    Join Date
    Nov 2009
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    430

    Default Re: tsptalk's Market Talk

    Tom...tough environ's to gamble in...like 'Ol Clint E "do ya feel lucky"...I've already took it in the shorts so am more reluctant than most...good reason to buy a premium at least for expert opinion.
    EJJ

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  23. #4020

    Default Re: tsptalk's Market Talk

    Bonds down big time after hours. AGG is -5.93% at 4:35 EDT

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SPY (C Fund) (delayed)
tsptalk's Market Talk
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tsptalk's Market Talk
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tsptalk's Market Talk
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tsptalk's Market Talk
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