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Thread: tsptalk's Market Talk

  1. #3625

    Default Re: tsptalk's Market Talk

    We're seeing a nice intraday snap back rally today. But be careful. Yes, there are several "V" like lows on this chart, but in 2018, and there are many more examples before 2018, where it could go back and forth for a while frustrating both the bulls and the bears. Of course it's too early to call this either of those right now. I'm just pointing out that both are still possible. However they all seemed to be closer to a low than not.


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  3. #3626

    Default Re: tsptalk's Market Talk

    On a day of big reversals, the reversal in bonds moved this 2/10 yield curve back to close, not at 0.09 where it was earlier on Wednesday, but down just 0.01 to 0.12.




    Quote Originally Posted by tsptalk View Post
    2-year vs. 10-year yield curve is now near 0.09. This chart only gets updated EOD so I added the move...


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  5. #3627

    Default Re: tsptalk's Market Talk

    The gap is nearly filled. Of course the question is, what happens after it is filled? Resistance, or a test of the 50-day EMA?



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  7. #3628

    Default Re: tsptalk's Market Talk

    OK... it's filled. 50 EMA or bust?


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  9. #3629

    Join Date
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    Default Re: tsptalk's Market Talk

    I'm thinking that was it, and we are going to solidfy here and start moving up again. Yes, there are a lot of disturbances in "the force", but overall I think we are ok.

    Well, I lost about 50K on paper in the last two weeks, so I am thinking positive again for most of it to come back. That's my plan, anyway. :-)

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  11. #3630

    Join Date
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    Default Re: tsptalk's Market Talk

    Quote Originally Posted by James48843 View Post
    I'm thinking that was it, and we are going to solidfy here and start moving up again. Yes, there are a lot of disturbances in "the force", but overall I think we are ok.

    Well, I lost about 50K on paper in the last two weeks, so I am thinking positive again for most of it to come back. That's my plan, anyway. :-)
    Ah heck, 50K ... no biggie, that's only $133/month drawing at a rate of 4% out of your TSP per year for 25 years!

    (ps - we need a sarcasm smiley).

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  13. #3631

    Default Re: tsptalk's Market Talk

    There's a big gap above and below the dollar ETF chart UUP, yet it has been pinned between the two for over a week now. Interesting. I think a big move is coming, one way or the other.

    Last edited by tsptalk; 08-12-2019 at 10:37 AM.

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  15. #3632

    Default Re: tsptalk's Market Talk

    As if on queue, we have another Turnaround Tuesday. How much is a 10 week delay in "some" tariffs worth to stocks? Apparently this much so far.




    The 50-day EMA is being tested again as the losses from the last two days have been recovered in another headline driven move.

    FOMO (fear of missing out) buying has so far outweighed the thought of selling the rally. We'll see if it holds into the close, but so far it hasn't wavered.

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  17. #3633

    Default Re: tsptalk's Market Talk

    Another day, another flip flop. Yesterday there were high 5's going around for the delayed tariffs. The yield curve was nearly inverted, as we have been boring you with for a while now, but today it briefly flashed to the inverted side apparently (although as I write this the 2/10 yield is not still inverted) and investors react now? Were they thinking it wasn't going to invert after flirting with it over and over?

    Markets are funny and can certainly try to get you to lean the wrong day. But I suppose the way things are going lately, if you don't like what you see happening on a given day, just wait a day and everything may change.

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  19. #3634

    Default Re: tsptalk's Market Talk

    With about 30 minutes to go in the day, here are some key chart breakdowns and near breakdowns...










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  21. #3635

    Join Date
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    Default Re: tsptalk's Market Talk

    Incredibly helpful Tom, thank you.

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  23. #3636

    Default Re: tsptalk's Market Talk

    The dip buyers keep trying this morning, but the rally sellers have been right there to swat it back down each time.

    90 minutes to see who will win today's battle.

    #buythedips

    #selltherips


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