Re: tsptalk's Market Talk
New high in the S&P 500 (C) this morning, small caps (S) are flat, the I-fund is up moderately with the dollar down, and the Transports are down fairly sharply.
The yield on the 10-year Treasury broke below a bear flag, pushing up bond prices (F).
https://www.tsptalk.com/images/mb/050119a.gif
Re: tsptalk's Market Talk
The energy sector has broken some support that could be troublesome.
https://www.tsptalk.com/images/mb/050219c.gif
Small caps are cracking a bit, but a strong close above about 1415 could change that...
https://www.tsptalk.com/images/mb/050219d.gif
Re: tsptalk's Market Talk
The 20-day EMA was taken out this morning, but it's early and we've seen crazy reversals lately. So far this is nothing, as far as a dip below recent highs, but the open gap near 2835 is still out there as a potential target if this pullback is going to continue.
https://www.tsptalk.com/images/mb/050719d.gif
Re: tsptalk's Market Talk
We're seeing some buying after this morning's plunge below the 50-day EMA, but it is battling back.
https://www.tsptalk.com/images/mb/050919b.gif
This is why the 50-day EMA is so important. Once broken it can become the resistance...
https://www.tsptalk.com/images/mb/050919a.gif
Re: tsptalk's Market Talk
Two birds with one stone...
The open gap from March was filled this morning, and now this reversal up filled this morning's gap - that can't even be seen now but was between the open near 2860 and yesterday's low of 2873. Now what?
https://www.tsptalk.com/images/mb/050919c.gif
There is still a very small open gap down near 2740.
Re: tsptalk's Market Talk
Interesting... Here it is again at the top of the old inverted H&S pattern. That's a perfect place for support after a breakout... but if that doesn't hold, we have some trouble. Of course the 200-day EMA is also always a possible target on pullbacks like this.
https://www.tsptalk.com/images/mb/051319a.gif
Re: tsptalk's Market Talk
Bonds are rallying as the 10-year Treasury yield is still trending lower...
https://www.tsptalk.com/images/mb/051319b.gif
Re: tsptalk's Market Talk
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The 10-year yield is at 2.382% right now, up off the morning lows after bouncing off the March low. A breakdown would put it to levels not seen since 2017, but there's a long way to go before it hits the 2016 lows. Just an interesting look. I had forgotten they had gotten so low, and the chart looks bearish, making the F-fund a possible good play in the coming months if someone doesn't like stocks right now.
https://www.tsptalk.com/images/mb/051519a.gif
https://www.tsptalk.com/images/mb/051519b.gif
Re: tsptalk's Market Talk
Re: tsptalk's Market Talk
It's still early but the bulls are winning the 50/100 EMA battle that I talked about in Thursday's commentary. The bear flag is now history - IF this rally holds into the close.
https://www.tsptalk.com/images/mb/051619a.gif
Re: tsptalk's Market Talk
Also, bond yields are bouncing off the double bottom, so bonds are off their highs this morning.
https://www.tsptalk.com/images/mb/051619b.gif
Re: tsptalk's Market Talk
Small caps are trying to hold onto that 200-day EMA, and so far showing a little more relative strength compared to large caps after last week's big lag.
https://www.tsptalk.com/images/mb/052019a.gif
The 10-year yield is moving higher again, so we are seeing the support holding and getting a double bottom bounce, plus a mini break above short-term resistance line, but this is an oversold bounce so far and possibly just a small breather for bond prices.
https://www.tsptalk.com/images/mb/052019b.gif