Thread: tsptalk's Market Talk

Thank, JTH. Here's the latest. Possible breakdown in the yield next week after the small red bear flag broke...

GDP report tomorrow. Question is would a negative GDP report be an up day for stocks on monday because we're still in the 'bad news is good news' market? Seems like what wall street is fearing the most is a rate hike

GDP report beats expectations, +1.4% vs the predicted 1.0%. In the past this would have been good for the markets, in this central bank manipulated market though, who the heck knows? lol

Originally Posted by sniper

GDP report beats expectations, +1.4% vs the predicted 1.0%. In the past this would have been good for the markets, in this central bank manipulated market though, who the heck knows? lol

I tell ya, I am so clueless on how fundamentals work, I only know they never do what I expect them to do and it usually ends up trading against me.

Central banks are running the show, and I guess it makes sense. Rates are too low to do anything but be in stocks, and any signs of that changing seems to panic the market, so the Fed doesn't want to do that, especially in an election year.

Were there any markets opened today that may have reacted to the higher than expected GDP?

Originally Posted by tsptalk

Central banks are running the show, and I guess it makes sense. Rates are too low to do anything but be in stocks, and any signs of that changing seems to panic the market, so the Fed doesn't want to do that, especially in an election year.

Were there any markets opened today that may have reacted to the higher than expected GDP?

Nope, looks like all markets are closed worldwide today. I guess Christianity did take over the world, huh? Wondering why the heck China or any country in Asia minus South Korea that would care about easter

Worldwide stock markets map shows the current open closed holiday status and current time for stock exchange- 24 hour format

"Worldwide Stock Markets map from WorldTimeZone.com displays the current local status (open, closed or holiday) for 11 Stock Exchanges globally. The information displayed is based on publically available information gathered from the various stock exchanges around the World."

Just looking at some charts, I always kept hearing that when large caps outperform, that means a bull market is nearing its end. So out of curiosity, I went to look for myself and this seems to be true for 2008. Past doesn't always indicate what will happen in the future, but this is worrisome. The red arrows are where I saw the difference in large cap strength over small caps begin to increase. The chart is SPY, and the orange chart is the Russell 2000 (IWM).

2008
SPYvsIWM2008.jpg

Current
SPYvsIWMCurrent.jpg

Here's another possible sign of trouble. This is a monthly chart so of course there is no instant gratification, but the TRIX Indicator, is showing that we have already had the 2nd crossover so we may be in the cycle of the next big bear market.

Piggybacking on that, here's a similar chart (S&P - monthly) dating back to 1996. Whenever the 9MA crossed the 26MA to the downside, a significant pullback happened. When MACD crossed upwards after the reversal, it was a safe time to get back in.

Red circles are when MACD divergence started to become noticeable to the downside, which could signal problems in the future

EDIT: The 9MA / 26MA lines haven't crossed yet to the downside, but it's really close right now.

SPYMonthly.jpg

Ladies and gentlemen... Janet Yellen.


5-minute chart


5-minute chart


15-minute chart