Thread: tsptalk's Market Talk

Another blast off this morning... But I know how this plays out. Thursday (late Wed.) we post the weekly sentiment survey and the Dow will be down 20 points [Thursday] and everyone will be bearish again.

19 positive Tuesdays in a row, but Thursdays have been just weak enough to throw the bears some chum.

Originally Posted by tsptalk

Another blast off this morning... But I know how this plays out. Thursday (late Wed.) we post the weekly sentiment survey and the Dow will be down 20 points [Thursday] and everyone will be bearish again.

19 positive Tuesdays in a row, but Thursdays have been just weak enough to throw the bears some chum.

We are getting very overbought so I would expect a down day or two anytime now. I think sentiment will get more positive though as folks give up on the the "pullback" theory.

You would think. But if today is a big reversal down day (too early to say but shaping up that way) and tomorrow is negative, I'll bet we see a bull to bear ratio under 1 to 1 again. If not (no reversal) my guess is it'll be in the 1.5 to 1 area, which is neutral.

So much for getting a sentiment survey sell signal tomorrow.

As suspected, we are almost certainly not going to see a "sell" signal in the survey system today.

I would have loved to have seen the bullish / bearish numbers on Tuesday or even Wed. morning.

Originally Posted by tsptalk

As suspected, we are almost certainly not going to see a buy signal in the survey system today.

I would have loved to have seen the bullish / bearish numbers on Tuesday or even Wed. morning.

What! It's currently 42% to 48% Bulls/Bears. Isn't that a buy signal in a Bull market?

Originally Posted by tsptalk

As suspected, we are almost certainly not going to see a buy signal in the survey system today.

I would have loved to have seen the bullish / bearish numbers on Tuesday or even Wed. morning.

I think you meant "sell" signal.

Originally Posted by tsptalk

I would have loved to have seen the bullish / bearish numbers on Tuesday or even Wed. morning.

I bet if the survey were done on Tuesdays, it would have sat out this entire rally over the last 19 weeks.

Originally Posted by Cactus

What! It's currently 42% to 48% Bulls/Bears. Isn't that a buy signal in a Bull market?

Yup, meant sell signal. Sorry.

So has this week been just a typical pre-holiday reversal week? We see it often... The week leading up to a holiday goes against the prevailing trend, but that trend resumes after the holiday. It's an Oscarism.

Originally Posted by tsptalk

So has this week been just a typical pre-holiday reversal week? We see it often... The week leading up to a holiday goes against the prevailing trend, but that trend resumes after the holiday. It's an Oscarism.

I think so. Profit taking ahead of the holiday. Overbought indicators have dipped quite a bit so we could bounce. I've been expecting a day or 2 pullback anytime and we got it. We're ready for another leg up imo.