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Thread: Bounce Coming?

  1. #1

    Default Bounce Coming?

    Dow Transports are up 4.4% right now. So tempting to use an IFT to buy this morning, but with only one buy per month, it's a very tough call.
    Tom
    Market Commentary | My Blog | TSP Talk Plus | |

    I am not a Registered Investment Advisor. Please do your own due diligence.


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  3. #2

    Join Date
    May 2008
    Location
    Utah
    Posts
    1,991

    Default Re: Bounce Coming?

    Quote Originally Posted by tsptalk View Post
    Dow Transports are up 4.4% right now. So tempting to use an IFT to buy this morning, but with only one buy per month, it's a very tough call.
    I just saw this news story:


    "Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway said Tuesday it will buy railroad operator Burlington Northern Santa Fe for $44 billion. Berkshire, which already has major stake in Burlington Northern, said it would acquire the remaining 77.4% of the company in a cash-and-stock offer worth $100 per share.

    Widely regarded as both one of the world's richest men and the investment community's more brilliant minds, Buffett called his firm's investment an "all-in wager on the economic future of the United States."

    "Our country's future prosperity depends on its having an efficient and well-maintained rail system," Buffett said in a statement."

    http://money.cnn.com/2009/11/03/news...ion=2009110308

    Buffett invests for the long-term, but the news also gave me a bigger comfort level in the intermediate term picture. I would probably dive back in to the markets this week but I'm about to embark on another 2-week business trip so I may stay in the Garage while I'm on the road.

    Lady

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  5. #3

    Default Re: Bounce Coming?

    Thanks Lady. Buffett is on TV right now, but I hadn't heard that when I made the post.

    Uh, oh. I took the plunge but I think I'd rather be a seller of an emotional spike like that. Still, several indicators are giving a short-term buy signal (oversold, ARMS, sentiment survey, some of trader fred's ETF's, etc.) Looks like I'm gambling for a few days (not much longer).
    Tom
    Market Commentary | My Blog | TSP Talk Plus | |

    I am not a Registered Investment Advisor. Please do your own due diligence.

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  7. #4

    Join Date
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    Default Re: Bounce Coming?

    Thanks Tom, that is one rocket-ship-crazy-upside move

    Attachment 7137
    Last edited by JTH; 05-15-2011 at 05:00 PM.

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  9. #5

    Join Date
    Apr 2005
    Location
    Gainesville, Florida, USA
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    24,244

    Default Re: Bounce Coming?

    Only about 60 points away from the 50-day. Perhaps we'll capture that back sometime this week.

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  11. #6

    Default Re: Bounce Coming?

    Tom,
    I was looking for your place ~~ so hopefully this is close enough. Anyway -- Excellent Positioning my friend -- you're playing like a Pro.

    The thing about our current place is that we're within talking distance to Alevie and W-Va girl and shouting distance from Grandma.

    That's how I see it !! It's not so much the 'numbers thing' it's way more --- Hey look where I am --- here's our good ole friends.

    Well congratulations ! .... so far

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  13. #7

    Default Re: Bounce Coming?

    I like using the seasonality estimates. Looking at it says we'll be getting a bounce next week.

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  15. #8

    Thumbs up Re: Bounce Coming?

    To clarify, the seasonality bar chart on Tom's comment page is very useful as a predictor. Other tools/links on the TSP talk website provide the average trader ways to effectively make profits, if careful.

    Using these tools I am estimating that the stocks are going up next week. Have a great weekend all.

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  17. #9

    Default Re: Bounce Coming?

    Welcome JimmyJoe! Thanks for joining us.

    To give credit where due, I get those charts from sentimentrader.com.
    Tom
    Market Commentary | My Blog | TSP Talk Plus | |

    I am not a Registered Investment Advisor. Please do your own due diligence.


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  19. #10

    Default Re: Bounce Coming?

    Yes,
    The Sentimentrader.com I look at occasionally. Don't know if the Sentimental Survey is related but the Survey is now a great indicator and a top performer. so it is one of the tools that I use as a cross reference. Also the members of the TSP auto trackers I follow as a reference and to challenge myself.

    It's all working now. I do keep a close eye on the markets so I don't get caught losing too much. But happily, now I keep a close eye on the markets because they are performing well as of the last 10 trading days. Nothing great but all those approximate 1 to 5 point gains are getting me back to where I was in 2008. Next week I'm looking for some S&P 10 point gains, if my assumptions are correct.

    Good to be part of the TSPtalk members.

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  21. #11

    Default Re: Bounce Coming?

    I'm kinda new to reading the charts and stuff - so JimmyJoe, based on your assumptions, you are predicting the S&P 500 to make some gains next week? how close do you keep an "eye" on the markets? and would you care to share the resources you use?

    Just curious...

    Quickstrike
    Quickstrike

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  23. #12

    Join Date
    Mar 2006
    Location
    Raleigh, NC
    Posts
    3,210

    Default Re: Bounce Coming?

    I think that next week's normal market adjustments will be overcome by the political yak.

    'The One' will be opening his mouth to support his Healthcare Reform. That will be bad enough. But, the opportunity will arise to denigrate business and clobber investment as a result of economic ignorance.

    ‘The Anti-Ones’ will be opening their yaks and demanding tax cuts in the face of $2 Trillion dollar deficits. The opportunity to denigrate gubmint employees will be just a bit too much to temper. They will be throwing tiles down from the ceiling of the Senate.

    Standard market forces will not play a role for a while.
    Lookin' up at the 'G Fund'!!!

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