Originally Posted by
Bullitt
I see what you're saying, but it all sounds like a matter of mental accounting.
If the market is down, lets say a 2008 scenario, not some ridiculous 5% drop, and you're drawing down from that G fund, you're going to have to move money back to TSP by selling whatever holdings you have in the Traditional IRA to keep your allocations proper according to your risk levels.
How much risk are you looking to take in retirement? If you have a balanced portfolio in retirement, it won't be as much of a hit in a down market when you withdraw funds. If you have 50G/50C, you're still withdrawing half your G fund, so it's not all C fund being liquidated. When you pull the plug, you should have your number in TSP with a conservative allocation that affords some growth with minimal risk of drawdown.
There is a great deal of luck involved, more than most want to admit. It was much easier to retire in the last 10 years than it was in 2007-2008, but if you hit your number, you should be able to sustain any market turbulence as long as you keep a conservative withdrawal rate.
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