Thread: S Fund

C and S may be able to finish in green

Hi all,

My figures show the S Fund is currently 2.8% ABOVE its 50 day moving average. We know that historically the S Fund often surges before C and then tapers off as C begins to move stronger.

My spreadsheets have been urging me into a larger chunk of S for 2 months now and I've been ignoring them.

So what do you all think? Are credit crises, oil prices, et al, going to affect the S Fund run soon, or should we be riding this trend on up?

Any comments would be appreciated!

Lady

Hi Lady,

In a "normal" year, I'd say sell in May and go away, although I never get completely out during the "off season" except to take profits, then get right back in (those days are gone with daily IFT's). However, this is an election year, that, oil and the fed bailouts/rescues have skewed everything. If the fed had not come through for the financials, the strong would have absorbed the weak and it would be business as usual within the next few months. IMO the housing market has at least another 9 months to go before it bottoms. Financials will continue to writedown losses and seek capital to flush out their balance sheets. So, having a good stake in S might not be a bad idea. I'm waiting for an opportunity to put more in and be positioned for the summer...instead of being out. I plan to keep a stake in all of them.

12%ayear has been a big believer in the S fund but it let him down. That doesn't mean he has given up hope. You might want to check his thread.

The Snake fund has been HISSING and Pissed Off for over a week. Is it time to TREAD ON HIM? Attachment 4198

season chart for s fund..
Good Luck
Skip
Attachment 5543

Thanks Skip

The s fund in a line chart
Attachment 5555

now picking the best 6 months of the year to be in the s fund. you would of on AVERAGE make more $$$$ with less risk.... Note MAY being the best month to be long.... Who would of quess that ? I usually like to get out in the middle of May as things get to busy in life here....then in and out a few times in the summer.
Another thing to look at is to divide the chart into weeks... sorry you have to eyeball it... Take note of the best times to enter and exit your trades... We only get 2 trades now so take your best shots..
PS
If anyone would like a seasonality chart of a stock let me know...got to put the odds in our favor....
Good trading
Skip

Great stuff Skip, thanks!

If January's drubbing taught me anything, it's that this market can be very unforgiving in a short period of time. Hopefully the next time I take a position in the S-fund, it will be a quick in-&-out .


Looking at the daily chart, I've circled in green, the lines of support I'm hoping will hold. I don't' have much faith in 348 or 332 holding but I've been wrong more times than right, so I'll just sit on the sidelines and watch.


I'm not good with Head & Shoulder patterns, but I am watching this chart to see how it plays out.


Looking at the P&F Chart set up with a 2 Box Reversal, I find it hard to believe it has a bullish price objective of 408. It also has a High Pole Warning.

"The high pole warning is given when a chart rises above a previous high by at least 3 boxes but then reverses to give back at least 50 percent of the rise. The reversal implies that the demand that was making the prices rise has given way to supply pressure. The pattern is a warning that lower prices could be seen in the future."
http://stockcharts.com/help/doku.php?id=supportnf_alerts


Last but not least, we have the weekly chart. I just wanted to point out the last candle colored in yellow. I guess you would call it an inverted hammer.

" The Inverted Hammer looks exactly like a Shooting Star, but forms after a decline or downtrend. Inverted Hammers represent a potential trend reversal or support levels. After a decline, the long upper shadow indicates buying pressure during the session. However, the bulls were not able to sustain this buying pressure and prices closed well off of their highs to create the long upper shadow. Because of this failure, bullish confirmation is required before action. An Inverted Hammer followed by a gap up or long white candlestick with heavy volume could act as bullish confirmation."
http://stockcharts.com/school/doku.p...uction_to_cand

Cheers...JTH

All of the index's are setting on a swing point...
It all depends on what happens in the senate this week... It makes it all to hard to trade.... Its a damm if you do and a damm if you don't...

Good Luck

Skip