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Thread: S-fund Challenge! Guesses

  1. #1

    Default S-fund Challenge!

    I would like to try an experiment on this thread to see who can outperform the S-fund. Between 4:00 - 7:00 PM ET, we can give our best calcumalated or edumacated guesses on how the S-fund will end up tomorrow -- up or down. Anyone can participate and I'll keep a running tab on each one's winning percentage. You don't have to enter everyday, but get at least a month's worth of entries to qualify for title of S-fund King!

    Partipants (Mar. 26, 2014 start): S-fund (0/0), and ebb (0/0), so far.

    By the way, the ebbcharts had a pattern 7/red-grn-grn (Win Percentage: 52%) today in the S-fund, so I'm not that surprised to see it down -0.03%. Tomorrow, we have pattern 8/red-grn-red (WP: C 56%, S 52%, I 57%), so it could be another bad day for the S-fund. Remember, any number that falls below our 7-yr. S&P 500 gauge (WP: 54.9%) means selling pressure. And, anything above it means upward bias.

    My guess for Mar. 26, 2014: S-fund down.

    Last edited by ebbnflow; 03-25-2014 at 04:38 PM.


  2.  
  3. #2

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    Default Re: S-fund Challenge!

    3/26/2014 - Up
    Rules:
    - Trade what you see, not what you believe
    - Don't put stuff in your signature that a Mod doesn't like

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  5. #3

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    Default Re: S-fund Challenge!

    Quote Originally Posted by RealMoneyIssues View Post
    3/26/2014 - Up
    yep

  6.  
  7. #4

    Default Re: S-fund Challenge!

    Let me change the time of entry for guesses to regular market hours -- 9:30 AM to 4:00 PM ET.
    A guess of up means you have a buy signal.
    A guess of down means you have a signal to short.
    No guess means you have a cash position (won't count).

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  9. #5

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    Default Re: S-fund Challenge!

    Down
    Retired, 55G/15C/15S/15I (Paper Trading)_ BLOG: Stats for March, Stats for Q1, 2024 Stats

  10.  
  11. #6

    Default Re: S-fund Challenge!

    Quote Originally Posted by JTH View Post
    Down
    Futures are up a little, and you're going with down S-fund, so no harm done. You're in, JTH. We can wave the time limit for entry as long as US futures are not up or down that much. It's just a guideline.

    Remember, if you don't post a guess, that means you're in cash for the next day and it won't count in the tally. To make it easy, you can even say up or down the whole week or month.

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  13. #7

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    Default Re: S-fund Challenge!

    UP!



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  15. #8

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    Default Re: S-fund Challenge!

    Quote Originally Posted by RealMoneyIssues View Post
    3/26/2014 - Up
    I guess Birchtree is on vacation...
    Rules:
    - Trade what you see, not what you believe
    - Don't put stuff in your signature that a Mod doesn't like

    "Government exists to protect all people’s rights, not some people’s feelings." - A. Barton Hinkle

    Great Tools:
    http://www.CreditKarma.com
    http://www.Mint.com
    http://www.SaveUp.com/r/nmJ

  16.  
  17. #9

    Default Re: S-fund Challenge!

    Quote Originally Posted by ebbnflow View Post
    I would like to try an experiment on this thread to see who can outperform the S-fund. Between 4:00 - 7:00 PM ET, we can give our best calcumalated or edumacated guesses on how the S-fund will end up tomorrow -- up or down. Anyone can participate and I'll keep a running tab on each one's winning percentage. You don't have to enter everyday, but get at least a month's worth of entries to qualify for title of S-fund King!

    Partipants (Mar. 26, 2014 start): S-fund (0/0), and ebb (0/0), so far.

    By the way, the ebbcharts had a pattern 7/red-grn-grn (Win Percentage: 52%) today in the S-fund, so I'm not that surprised to see it down -0.03%. Tomorrow, we have pattern 8/red-grn-red (WP: C 56%, S 52%, I 57%), so it could be another bad day for the S-fund. Remember, any number that falls below our 7-yr. S&P 500 gauge (WP: 54.9%) means selling pressure. And, anything above it means upward bias.

    My guess for Mar. 26, 2014: S-fund down.

    Pattern 8/red-grn-red (WP: C 56%, S 52%, I 57%) may look strange with the C and I-fund having a buy signal while the S-fund has a short signal. But that's the pattern's signature and it shows that it's weak in the S-fund.

    Right now, the C and I-fund are up, while the S-find is down. We don't know if the funds will end like this, but there is definitely more weakness in the S-fund, as expected by the pattern.


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  19. #10

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    Default Re: S-fund Challenge!

    Quote Originally Posted by ebbnflow View Post
    I would like to try an experiment on this thread to see who can outperform the S-fund. Between 4:00 - 7:00 PM ET, we can give our best calcumalated or edumacated guesses on how the S-fund will end up tomorrow -- up or down. Anyone can participate and I'll keep a running tab on each one's winning percentage. You don't have to enter everyday, but get at least a month's worth of entries to qualify for title of S-fund King!

    Partipants (Mar. 26, 2014 start): S-fund (0/0), and ebb (0/0), so far.

    By the way, the ebbcharts had a pattern 7/red-grn-grn (Win Percentage: 52%) today in the S-fund, so I'm not that surprised to see it down -0.03%. Tomorrow, we have pattern 8/red-grn-red (WP: C 56%, S 52%, I 57%), so it could be another bad day for the S-fund. Remember, any number that falls below our 7-yr. S&P 500 gauge (WP: 54.9%) means selling pressure. And, anything above it means upward bias.

    My guess for Mar. 26, 2014: S-fund down.

    Let's see if I got this straight. Tuesday's red-green-green showed an overall positive return of 52% with the C fund itself positive 54% of the time, the S fund 53% and the I fund 49%. By your own definition, anything over 52% would suggest a bias towards a positive trading day and anything under 52% woulds suggest a negative day. Yet, you say you expected the S fund to be down yesterday? Intertesting. And what happened with the I fund? It wasn't down?

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  21. #11

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    Default Re: S-fund Challenge!

    Quote Originally Posted by Intrepid_Timer View Post
    Let's see if I got this straight. Tuesday's red-green-green showed an overall positive return of 52% with the C fund itself positive 54% of the time, the S fund 53% and the I fund 49%. By your own definition, anything over 52% would suggest a bias towards a positive trading day and anything under 52% woulds suggest a negative day. Yet, you say you expected the S fund to be down yesterday? Intertesting. And what happened with the I fund? It wasn't down?
    Oh wait, the S&P gauge number is 54.9%. So that would have meant selling pressure in all the funds yesterday, no?

  22.  
  23. #12

    Default Re: S-fund Challenge!

    If I understand this correctly, we are saying where we expect the S Fund to be at tomorrows (3/27) close.

    Down.
    Allocations as of COB Dec 28 : 100% S. | Retirement Date:Dec 2025
    Past Returns:
    2020 31.85%,2019 27.97%,2018 -3.36%,2017 13.10%, 2016 -1.79%, 5Yr Avg 12.61%

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