Thread: S-fund Challenge! Guesses

ebb,

A few questions about the game:

1. You list the "S-Fund" as making guesses. Is that an individual with the same name as the actual S Fund? If not, what is it?

2. Will your system always be either long or short, or can your system go to cash as well?

3. I've developed a NN to play this game. I have an UP/DOWN solution (as well as a target close for Monday ). Will the guess count if I post it today, or should I just wait and post a new guess on Monday for Tuesday's action?

Thanks.

Originally Posted by userque

ebb,

A few questions about the game:

1. You list the "S-Fund" as making guesses. Is that an individual with the same name as the actual S Fund? If not, what is it?

2. Will your system always be either long or short, or can your system go to cash as well?

3. I've developed a NN to play this game. I have an UP/DOWN solution (as well as a target close for Monday ). Will the guess count if I post it today, or should I just wait and post a new guess on Monday for Tuesday's action?

Thanks.

1. No, the S-fund is just the S-fund and its guess is always up/long. Our goal would be to do better than its win percentage.

2. The ebbcharts system can also go cash if the pattern's win percentage for the S-fund equals our 7-yr. S&P 500 gauge of 54.8% (long > 54.8%, cash = 54.8%, short < 54.8%).

3. Great, by all means post your guess! US futures don't show up until Sunday night. Just include the day for your guess. Ex. Mar. 31-Apr. 04...up/down. No guess for any day means cash and won't count in the tally.

If anyone is trading TNA, then following the ebbcharts guesses would have resulted in two of three guesses being right (WP: 2/3 67%). This is how it can help folks with ETFs, or stocks.

Although NN was still crunching the numbers--searching for a better solution...its best guess so far is up, with a 'closing' guess of 1003.76. Final answer.

(Not much 'up' movement there. The safer 'game strategy' here would be to guess 'cash,' imo.)

UPDATE: Guess is for Monday, 3-31-14: UP

Originally Posted by userque

Although NN was still crunching the numbers--searching for a better solution...its best guess so far is up, with a 'closing' guess of 1003.76. Final answer.

(Not much 'up' movement there. The safer 'game strategy' here would be to guess 'cash,' imo.)

UPDATE: Guess is for Monday, 3-31-14: UP

NN stands for neural network, right? This is getting mighty interesting. NN vs. the S-fund...could be epic!

3/31 up

Tally update (Monday/Mar. 31, 2014):

EbbCharts (2/3). WP: 67%. Guess: down. Long (0/0). Short (2/3).
S-fund (1/3). WP: 33%. Guess: up. Long (1/3). Short (0/0).
userque (0/0). WP: 0%. Guess: up. Long (0/0). Short (0/0).
Cactus (0/2). WP: 0%. Guess: down. Long (0/1). Short (0/1).
CrabClaw (0/1). WP: 0%. Guess: cash. Long (0/1). Short (0/0).
MrJohnRoss (0/1). WP: 0%. Guess: cash. Long (0/1). Short (0/0).
nnuut (0/1). WP: 0%. Guess: cash. Long (0/1). Short (0/0).
RealMoneyIssues (0/1). WP: 0%. Guess: up. Long (0/1). Short (0/0).

Anyone can take a guess and post charts to support it (optional). No guess for any day means cash (won't count in the tally). Do you have what it takes to beat the S-fund?

Ebb;

Participation has dropped off and you have received several posts indicating people don't understand your system. It may help to try to explain it again -- maybe using different words. I know it is crystal clear to you, but others don't have the benefit of your understanding and may be thinking differently. Here is an example of a misunderstanding:

Post #12 Cactus votes 3/27 Down
Post #46 S Fund is -0.21%
Post #45 Cactus votes 3/28 Down
Post #46 S Fund is +0.32%

At this point Cactus is listed (0/2) leaving him feeling like the mouse facing the giant in Ender's Game. It doesn't matter which glass you choose. How is the numerator determined? It is more complicated than just guessing the ending Wilshire 4500 price change from the previous trading day being positive or negative.

Originally Posted by ebbnflow

Tally update (Monday/Mar. 31, 2014):

EbbCharts (2/3). WP: 67%. Guess: down. Long (0/0). Short (2/3).
S-fund (1/3). WP: 33%. Guess: up. Long (1/3). Short (0/0).
userque (0/0). WP: 0%. Guess: up. Long (0/0). Short (0/0).
Cactus (0/2). WP: 0%. Guess: down. Long (0/1). Short (0/1).
CrabClaw (0/1). WP: 0%. Guess: cash. Long (0/1). Short (0/0).
MrJohnRoss (0/1). WP: 0%. Guess: cash. Long (0/1). Short (0/0).
nnuut (0/1). WP: 0%. Guess: cash. Long (0/1). Short (0/0).
RealMoneyIssues (0/1). WP: 0%. Guess: up. Long (0/1). Short (0/0).

Anyone can take a guess and post charts to support it (optional). No guess for any day means cash (won't count in the tally). Do you have what it takes to beat the S-fund?

Originally Posted by Cactus

Ebb;

Participation has dropped off and you have received several posts indicating people don't understand your system. It may help to try to explain it again -- maybe using different words. I know it is crystal clear to you, but others don't have the benefit of your understanding and may be thinking differently. Here is an example of a misunderstanding:

Post #12 Cactus votes 3/27 Down
Post #46 S Fund is -0.21%
Post #45 Cactus votes 3/28 Down
Post #46 S Fund is +0.32%

At this point Cactus is listed (0/2) leaving him feeling like the mouse facing the giant in Ender's Game. It doesn't matter which glass you choose. How is the numerator determined? It is more complicated than just guessing the ending Wilshire 4500 price change from the previous trading day being positive or negative.

My sincere apologies, Cactus! No worries, we have state-of-the-art video cameras installed everywhere (let's go to the replay). Upon further review, the ruling on the field is overturned. No penalty would be assessed on your behalf.

Only one player has withdrawn from the challenge, so far. Anyone wishing to have his or her name removed from the contest can do so at any time.

Tally update (Monday/Mar. 31, 2014):

EbbCharts (2/3). WP: 67%. Guess: down. Long (0/0). Short (2/3).
Cactus (1/2). WP: 50%. Guess: down. Long (0/0). Short (1/2).
S-fund (1/3). WP: 33%. Guess: up. Long (1/3). Short (0/0).
userque (0/0). WP: 0%. Guess: up. Long (0/0). Short (0/0).
CrabClaw (0/1). WP: 0%. Guess: cash. Long (0/1). Short (0/0).
MrJohnRoss (0/1). WP: 0%. Guess: cash. Long (0/1). Short (0/0).
nnuut (0/1). WP: 0%. Guess: cash. Long (0/1). Short (0/0).
RealMoneyIssues (0/1). WP: 0%. Guess: up. Long (0/1). Short (0/0).

Originally Posted by ebbnflow

NN stands for neural network, right? This is getting mighty interesting. NN vs. the S-fund...could be epic!

Right NN stands for neural network. Just a simple one I designed based only on time (Year, Month, Trading Day of the Month, Day of Month, Weekday) and Closing Prices (last eleven trading days) all going back to May 2004. (Validated on last ten trading days and updated daily.) No other indicators are (currently) given to the NN.

Hopefully, it'll be interesting.

Originally Posted by ebbnflow

My sincere apologies, Cactus! No worries, we have state-of-the-art video cameras installed everywhere (let's go to the replay). Upon further review, the ruling on the field is overturned. No penalty would be assessed on your behalf.

Maybe build a spreadsheet to help automate the tallying? Need help with that?

Originally Posted by userque

Maybe build a spreadsheet to help automate the tallying? Need help with that?

Sure, maybe even include the gains/losses for our long/short positions in the S-fund. You can handle the tallying if you wish. We know there are ETFs equivalent to our S-fund (3x leveraged, also). So, it's a great chance to see if our systems have the right stuff...or not. Much easier to talk the talk, but way harder to walk the walk.