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Thread: S-fund Challenge! Guesses

  1. #25

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    Default Re: S-fund Challenge!

    Quote Originally Posted by ebbnflow View Post
    We see websites forecasting sentiment for each trading day. This challenge is just that, no doubling down on bad bets, no claims of winning big hitting only 10% of trades. It is what it is.
    I know it's just a contest/game, but fwiw:

    Even within the constraints of your contest, one doesn't have to always trade...as you said, one can be in cash. With that, imagine a system that can not only predict 'up' or 'down,' but also how much up or down.

    With such a system, one can avoid days predicted to have small movements...in effect: Doubling-Down.

    However, unlike real trading, your contest doesn't seem to take into account the change in price (one good trade offsetting several bad trades), only whether the price is higher or lower. Even so, the above system would still be helpful in a contest such as yours in that a strong up day prediction can also likely be considered a 'more probable' up day and vice versa.

    So a strategy applicable to your contest could simply be to only 'guess' when the system predicts big movements up or down.

    If this contest shows signs of staying around, maybe I'll rig-up just such a NN
    "In the land of idiots, the moron is King."--Unknown

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  3. #26

    Default Re: S-fund Challenge!

    Quote Originally Posted by userque View Post
    I know it's just a contest/game, but fwiw:

    Even within the constraints of your contest, one doesn't have to always trade...as you said, one can be in cash. With that, imagine a system that can not only predict 'up' or 'down,' but also how much up or down.

    With such a system, one can avoid days predicted to have small movements...in effect: Doubling-Down.

    However, unlike real trading, your contest doesn't seem to take into account the change in price (one good trade offsetting several bad trades), only whether the price is higher or lower. Even so, the above system would still be helpful in a contest such as yours in that a strong up day prediction can also likely be considered a 'more probable' up day and vice versa.

    So a strategy applicable to your contest could simply be to only 'guess' when the system predicts big movements up or down.

    If this contest shows signs of staying around, maybe I'll rig-up just such a NN
    I can guarantee you, if the market wins 54% or 55% (just like what the S&P 500 had done since 2007), you don't need to know how much the market will gain on any given day. A win percentage of 53% may not be enough because you lose more on down days, though. I think you're getting too greedy if a great win percentage is not enough for you.

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  5. #27

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    Default Re: S-fund Challenge!

    Quote Originally Posted by ebbnflow View Post
    I can guarantee you, if the market wins 54% or 55% (just like what the S&P 500 had done since 2007), you don't need to know how much the market will gain on any given day. A win percentage of 53% may not be enough because you lose more on down days, though. I think you're getting too greedy if a great win percentage is not enough for you.
    Just to be clear:

    So, S&P 500 did 54-55% winning. (I assume by winning you mean 'up' days.)...and this is a "great win percentage."

    So, you are saying one can just buy and hold the S&P to receive the 54-55% great winning; and anything better than that is being greedy?

    So...just buy and hold is what you are saying?

    So...why do you need special charts to simply buy and hold to receive the great 54-55% winning??

    I've got to be missing something. What is it?

    "In the land of idiots, the moron is King."--Unknown


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  7. #28

    Default Re: S-fund Challenge!

    It's extremely difficult to determine a one day probability of an up or down day, but I'm expecting a bit of a relief rally tomorrow for the battered S Fund. I say UP. (But I also think it will be a short lived rally).
    CURRENT ALLOCATION: 100% I AS OF C.O.B. 5/22/2017

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  9. #29

    Default Re: S-fund Challenge!

    Quote Originally Posted by userque View Post
    Just to be clear:

    So, S&P 500 did 54-55% winning. (I assume by winning you mean 'up' days.)...and this is a "great win percentage."

    So, you are saying one can just buy and hold the S&P to receive the 54-55% great winning; and anything better than that is being greedy?

    So...just buy and hold is what you are saying?

    So...why do you need special charts to simply buy and hold to receive the great 54-55% winning??

    I've got to be missing something. What is it?

    Yep, you missed a lot. The point of this exercise is to see if we can get a better win percentage than the S&P 500's 54.8%. That's not being greedy. Being greedy is wanting to know how much a given day would gain (mission impossible). That's just asking too much. I assure you (again), if you get a good win percentage, everything else will fall into place.

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  11. #30

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    Default Re: S-fund Challenge!

    Quote Originally Posted by MrJohnRoss View Post
    It's extremely difficult to determine a one day probability of an up or down day, but I'm expecting a bit of a relief rally tomorrow for the battered S Fund. I say UP. (But I also think it will be a short lived rally).
    I agree. The shorter the trading time-frame, the greater the noise/randomness. However, for contest purposes--competing against each other, everyone deals with the same noise/randomness...so it drops from the equation. Thus, luck and skill rule at that point. Over a certain amount of time, luck should also drop from the equation.
    "In the land of idiots, the moron is King."--Unknown

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  13. #31

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    Default Re: S-fund Challenge!

    Quote Originally Posted by ebbnflow View Post
    Being greedy is wanting to know how much a given day would gain (mission impossible). That's just asking too much.
    I assume you realize that we have to be referring to 'knowing' things within a 'winning' and reasonable degree of accuracy; and that knowing how much up or down exactly, consistently, is certainly impossible.

    That said, the ability to know stuff to a reasonable degree of certainty and consistency is a matter of perspective and opinion. Some may argue that knowing the direction of the next market day (consistently) is impossible as well. They could also argue that that would be "asking too much."

    Simply not being able to do something (within reason) is not evidence that doing it is impossible.

    I'll get started on a 'system' to play your contest and predict the next close and/or the gain/loss.

    btw, I found the past performance numbers for the 'timer' system; do you have any such numbers available for your 'chart' system?
    "In the land of idiots, the moron is King."--Unknown

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  15. #32

    Default Re: S-fund Challenge!

    Tally for Mar. 27, 2014 (S-fund):

    EbbCharts (1/1). WP: 100%. Guess: down.
    JTH (1/1). WP: 100%. Guess: cash.
    Cactus (0/0). WP: 0%. Guess: up.
    CrabClaw (0/1). WP: 0%. Guess: cash.
    MrJohnRoss (0/0). WP: 0%. Guess: up.
    nnuut (0/1). WP: 0%. Guess: cash.
    RealMoneyIssues (0/1). WP: 0%. Guess: cash.
    S-fund (0/1). WP: 0%. Guess: up.


    No guess = cash.

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  17. #33

    Default Re: S-fund Challenge!

    Quote Originally Posted by userque View Post
    I assume you realize that we have to be referring to 'knowing' things within a 'winning' and reasonable degree of accuracy; and that knowing how much up or down exactly, consistently, is certainly impossible.

    That said, the ability to know stuff to a reasonable degree of certainty and consistency is a matter of perspective and opinion. Some may argue that knowing the direction of the next market day (consistently) is impossible as well. They could also argue that that would be "asking too much."

    Simply not being able to do something (within reason) is not evidence that doing it is impossible.

    I'll get started on a 'system' to play your contest and predict the next close and/or the gain/loss.

    btw, I found the past performance numbers for the 'timer' system; do you have any such numbers available for your 'chart' system?
    What would you consider consistent? On the 7-yr. ebbtally chart, bullish red pattern 5/red-red-red (our most bullish red pattern) has a win percentage of 61% in the C, 60% in the S, and 58% in the I-fund. That beats the S&P 500's win percentage of 54.8%. I'll upload the other charts once updated.

    7-yr. ebbtally chart (win percentages):


    Year-to-year chart:


    7-yr. compounded result (2007-2014):

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  19. #34

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    Default Re: S-fund Challenge!

    Quote Originally Posted by ebbnflow View Post
    What would you consider consistent? On the 7-yr. ebbtally chart, bullish red pattern 5/red-red-red (our most bullish red pattern) has a win percentage of 61% in the C, 60% in the S, and 58% in the I-fund. That beats the S&P 500's win percentage of 54.8%. I'll upload the other charts once updated.

    7-yr. ebbtally chart (win percentages):

    [snipped]
    Nice!
    "In the land of idiots, the moron is King."--Unknown

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  21. #35

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    Default Re: S-fund Challenge!

    I knew this thread was going to turn into another advertisement thread.............. Thanks ebb, but I don't need it.

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  23. #36

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    Default Re: S-fund Challenge!

    I'm respectfully withdrawing from this thread and walking away from the table with a 100% winning ratio. While this might be a fun experiment, this is no way based on the 2-IFT reality we live with and there's plenty of reason to believe the motivations here are suspect.


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