Originally Posted by
userque
I know it's just a contest/game, but fwiw:
Even within the constraints of your contest, one doesn't have to always trade...as you said, one can be in cash. With that, imagine a system that can not only predict 'up' or 'down,' but also how much up or down.
With such a system, one can avoid days predicted to have small movements...in effect: Doubling-Down.:)
However, unlike real trading, your contest doesn't seem to take into account the change in price (one good trade offsetting several bad trades), only whether the price is higher or lower. Even so, the above system would still be helpful in a contest such as yours in that a strong up day prediction can also likely be considered a 'more probable' up day and vice versa.
So a strategy applicable to your contest could simply be to only 'guess' when the system predicts big movements up or down.
If this contest shows signs of staying around, maybe I'll rig-up just such a NN