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Thread: S-fund Challenge! Guesses

  1. #13

    Default Re: S-fund Challenge!

    Quote Originally Posted by Intrepid_Timer View Post
    Let's see if I got this straight. Tuesday's red-green-green showed an overall positive return of 52% with the C fund itself positive 54% of the time, the S fund 53% and the I fund 49%. By your own definition, anything over 52% would suggest a bias towards a positive trading day and anything under 52% woulds suggest a negative day. Yet, you say you expected the S fund to be down yesterday? Intertesting. And what happened with the I fund? It wasn't down?
    Quote Originally Posted by Intrepid_Timer View Post
    Oh wait, the S&P gauge number is 54.9%. So that would have meant selling pressure in all the funds yesterday, no?
    Intrepid, you catch on quickly, the S&P gauge is not at 52% as you previously stated. That's right, the forecast was right only in the S-fund. Selling pressure in the C and I-fund failed to materialize. But do keep in mind that even if we have a high win percentage of say 61% for a pattern 5/red-red-red (the most bullish red pattern) in the C-fund, it still has a fail rate of 39%. It's all about getting an edge through knowledge and information.

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  3. #14

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    Default Re: S-fund Challenge!

    Quote Originally Posted by ebbnflow View Post
    Intrepid, you catch on quickly, the S&P gauge is not at 52% as you previously stated. That's right, the forecast was right only in the S-fund. Selling pressure in the C and I-fund failed to materialize. But do keep in mind that even if we have a high win percentage of say 61% for a pattern 5/red-red-red (the most bullish red pattern) in the C-fund, it still has a fail rate of 39%. It's all about getting an edge through knowledge and information.
    Well, I don't know what sort of edge 54% is compared to 50/50, unless your the "house" in Vegas, or what help it is for TSP, but good luck with that. If you can get a bunch of premium service members to start posting their moves here, then that might give you an edge to know when our next IFT is though.

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  5. #15

    Default Re: S-fund Challenge!

    Quote Originally Posted by Intrepid_Timer View Post
    Well, I don't know what sort of edge 54% is compared to 50/50, unless your the "house" in Vegas, or what help it is for TSP, but good luck with that. If you can get a bunch of premium service members to start posting their moves here, then that might give you an edge to know when our next IFT is though.
    You're kidding, right? If you're winning 54% of your bets in Vegas, that means you're a winner. For your information, the break even winning percentage in sports betting is 53%.

    One of the main purposes of the ebbcharts is to filter out noise. That is why the ebbcharts only deal with evidence-based stats. You won't see stats on head and shoulder, bear flags, or whatnot patterns. Random walk...I refuse to take that path.

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  7. #16

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    Default Re: S-fund Challenge!

    Quote Originally Posted by ebbnflow View Post
    You're kidding, right? If you're winning 54% of your bets in Vegas, that means you're a winner. For your information, the break even winning percentage in sports betting is 53%.

    One of the main purposes of the ebbcharts is to filter out noise. That is why the ebbcharts only deal with evidence-based stats. You won't see stats on head and shoulder, bear flags, or whatnot patterns. Random walk...I refuse to take that path.
    If you are referring to my system, then you don't know what you are talking, for your information........... I guess returns speak for themselves. Good luck over at that other site.

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  9. #17

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    Default Re: S-fund Challenge!

    Quote Originally Posted by ebbnflow View Post
    You're kidding, right? If you're winning 54% of your bets in Vegas, that means you're a winner. For your information, the break even winning percentage in sports betting is 53%.

    One of the main purposes of the ebbcharts is to filter out noise. That is why the ebbcharts only deal with evidence-based stats. You won't see stats on head and shoulder, bear flags, or whatnot patterns. Random walk...I refuse to take that path.
    Just an FYI, if only 54% of my trades were winners, I wouldn't be a premium service here anymore either.

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  11. #18

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    Default Re: S-fund Challenge!

    Quote Originally Posted by ebbnflow View Post
    You're kidding, right? If you're winning 54% of your bets in Vegas, that means you're a winner. For your information, the break even winning percentage in sports betting is 53%.

    One of the main purposes of the ebbcharts is to filter out noise. That is why the ebbcharts only deal with evidence-based stats. You won't see stats on head and shoulder, bear flags, or whatnot patterns. Random walk...I refuse to take that path.
    "Ladies, you're both pretty..."

    Talking winning percentage by itself is like discussing the space-time continuum and leaving out time.

    One can win 60% of the time, but lose twice as much cash per trade as they win and still be an overall loser.

    Relatedly, one can win only 40% of the time, but win twice as much cash per trade as they lose, and still be an overall winner.

    So one can't meaningfully say where a "break-even" point is without knowing more (than just the 'winning' percentage) about the betting strategy.

    It gets deeper, but I'll simply mention the well-known phrase:

    Correlation is not necessarily evidence of causation.

    Anyway,

    Why not just pull out the measuring tape and see how they measure up:

    How do the returns of the 'timer' system compare to those of the 'chart' system? Are the returns even made available?
    [COLOR=#0000ff][FONT=comic sans ms][I]"In the land of idiots, the moron is King."--Unknown[/I][/FONT][/COLOR]


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  13. #19

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    Default Re: S-fund Challenge!

    Tomorrow will be either up or down or neither

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  15. #20

    Default Re: S-fund Challenge!

    Quote Originally Posted by Intrepid_Timer View Post
    Just an FYI, if only 54% of my trades were winners, I wouldn't be a premium service here anymore either.
    Funny. Who says you're winning 54% of your trades? You should be winning at least 55% (S&P 500 win percentage since 2007) of your trades. The word for today is...random walk...you'll be the last to know if you're walking on one.

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  17. #21

    Default Re: S-fund Challenge!

    Quote Originally Posted by JTH View Post
    Tomorrow will be either up or down or neither
    Ok, no guess means cash (won't count in your tally).

  18.  
  19. #22

    Default Re: S-fund Challenge!

    Quote Originally Posted by userque View Post
    "Ladies, you're both pretty..."

    Talking winning percentage by itself is like discussing the space-time continuum and leaving out time.

    One can win 60% of the time, but lose twice as much cash per trade as they win and still be an overall loser.

    Relatedly, one can win only 40% of the time, but win twice as much cash per trade as they lose, and still be an overall winner.

    So one can't meaningfully say where a "break-even" point is without knowing more (than just the 'winning' percentage) about the betting strategy.

    It gets deeper, but I'll simply mention the well-known phrase:

    Correlation is not necessarily evidence of causation.

    Anyway,

    Why not just pull out the measuring tape and see how they measure up:

    How do the returns of the 'timer' system compare to those of the 'chart' system? Are the returns even made available?
    We see websites forecasting sentiment for each trading day. This challenge is just that, no doubling down on bad bets, no claims of winning big hitting only 10% of trades. It is what it is.

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  21. #23

    Default Re: S-fund Challenge!

    Mar. 26, 2014 (unofficial): C -0.62%; S -1.42%; I +0.81% (watch out for -FV).

    Tally: S-fund (0/1 ), Cactus (0/0), CrabClaw (0/1), EbbCharts (1/1), JTH (1/1), nnuut (0/1), RealMoneyIssues (0/1).

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  23. #24

    Default Re: S-fund Challenge!

    We have pattern 2/grn-grn-red (WP: C 55.4%, S 52.1%, I 53.2%) on the ebbcharts for Mar. 27, 2014. So, according to the 7-yr. ebbtally chart, there is selling pressure in the S and I-fund. The C-fund may fare better than the other funds.

    Mar. 27, 2014: S-fund down.

  24.  
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SPY (C Fund) (delayed)
S-fund Challenge! Guesses
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S-fund Challenge! Guesses
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S-fund Challenge! Guesses
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S-fund Challenge! Guesses
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