Thread: S-fund Challenge! Guesses

Originally Posted by ebbnflow

For Apr. 08, 2014:

S&P 500 gauge: 54.9% (7-yr. win percentage).
Pattern: 1/grn-grn-grn (WP: C 52.5%, S 55.1%, I 49.6%).
Strategy: long > 54.9%; short <= 53%; cash > 53% and <= 54.9%.
Forecast: short C-fund; long S-fund; short I-fund.

For Apr. 09, 2014:

S&P 500 gauge: 54.9% (7-yr. win percentage).
Pattern: 1/grn-grn-grn (WP: C 52.5%, S 55.1%, I 49.6%). Note: WP not updated yet.
Strategy: long > 54.9%; short <= 53%; cash > 53% and <= 54.9%.
Forecast: short C-fund; long S-fund; short I-fund.

4-9-2014: UP, 996.80

Attachment 28056

Originally Posted by ebbnflow

Trader king should be crowned by the end of the year. We should see by then what works.

If you want to try out some strategy, or a random guy like joe six-pack, then it's up to you.

Did you IFT to the I-fund, userque? The I-fund takes a dump when pattern 1/grn-grn-grn appears on the ebbcharts. It has a winning percentage of only 49.6%. Compare that with 55.1% in the S -fund. Futures are looking bad for the I-fund right now...my guesstimate shows a loss of -0.70%. The other funds are okay, so far. Still too early, though.

Yep, pattern 1/grn-grn-grn continues to read the I-fund like a book (C +0.41%, S +0.76%, I -0.01%).

EFA (I-fund) is showing a gain of +0.71% @1:15 PM ET, but my guesstimate has it closer to no gains at all.

Final MSCI EAFE shows a gain of +0.16% in the I-fund (sans FV).

Skyrockets in flight. Afternoon delight.

Originally Posted by ebbnflow

For Apr. 09, 2014:

S&P 500 gauge: 54.9% (7-yr. win percentage).
Pattern: 1/grn-grn-grn (WP: C 52.7%, S 55.3%, I 49.4%). Note: WP updated.
Strategy: long > 54.9%; short <= 53%; cash > 53% and <= 54.9%.
Forecast: short C-fund; long S-fund; short I-fund.

For Apr. 10, 2014:

S&P 500 gauge: 54.9% (7-yr. win percentage).
Pattern: 2/grn-grn-red (WP: C 55.1%, S 51.9%, I 53.4%).
Strategy: long > 54.9%; short <= 53%; cash > 53% and <= 54.9%.
Forecast: long C-fund; short S-fund; cash I-fund.

Worst pattern for the S-fund.

4-10-14 guess: down, 1003.25

Attachment 28068

market closed date should read 4-9-14

Another late night guess change: UP 1007.28 (Hopefully, I won't regret this change as must as I did a previous change I made )

I love it when the NN's differ with the EbbCharts

(Once I finish this latest updating/configuring of the NN's, they will be running continuously without being 'reset,' as they are being now. This will allow them to save and build from previous learning, rather than begin started anew each day or less. Then they should become 'smarter' and smarter [by a smaller and smaller factor] each day; and be much less likely to "change their minds." That's the hope at least...the challenge will reveal.

Last guess: 1008.58

Just overhauled the NN, so it likely won't be able to beat the 'accuracy'(/probability/reliability) of it's above guess before market open.

UPDATE: Correction: The S-Fund Challenge NN hasn't been overhauled. I overhauled the F-Fund NN. S-Fund Challenge NN still has all of its wits and may still give a better guess before long.