Thread: 20 DEC - 24 DEC

You mayvery well be rightChaplain.

http://www.advfn.com/news_Forex---US...k_9800583.html

In a up trend a nd good season this work for me in I-FUND

I see the trend of euro vs dollar
euro trend is up {look like gonna still doing new record up}
dollar trend is down {we dont now went gonna stop}
here we go.....

What I'm doing right now is this.I wait unstil the dollar get up to the top.
rightaway jump to I-fund TO catch the next move that have been
dollar down.after dollaris in the top. next move is down& I-fund
get his nice day not matterwhat market is up or down .I not anxpert just
playing a little bit but ultimaly I have been lucky & benifit from I fun in his
up and down move ...Just buying I-fund when is low the next day of the
dollar on the top.It not a big deal, just telling what I m doing .When that
happen I-fund get a new high then out & in.
{After a dollar up in the top the next two days are dollar down A LITTLE
THE second day is down again to the botton & i-fund will do a new high}.

Is just my point of viu. Dollar has not stay up in a row just after the top
automatically his neXt move willbe down again.so I benefic from that.
tHAT'S ALL .

10-c 30-c 60-i [dec 23rd]...:^

puertorico wrote:

In a up trend a nd good season this work for me in I-FUND

Puertorico, Feliz Navidad, my friend. Bi lo, sell hi! I haven't done that as well as you, but Iwill keep trying. ¡Próspero año nuevo!

CHaplain Merry ChRISTmast

I have'nt doing good with the big rallyes but not bad with
I-fund bounce ,that make it even.

Thanx for the comments, guys!

I decided to remain where I'm at:

35C

55S

10I

Still awaiting the Santa Rally......................

God Bless & Happy Christmas!:dude:

I just make the jump For Santa Rally 60-c 30-s 10-I

hoping I-fund do today{60-i} some new high -

In Phoenix now Puertorico. Finally. Looks like you did very well today. But you left I and now I am all I. I may have my on-off days out of cycle now and you be the smarter! :^ Happy holidays!!!

I'm still nervous about the I fund but I can't deny that it has performed well this week.

Regarding the I fund’s performance, the dollar's fluctuations obviously have an impact on the fund's value. The dollar's current weakness has led to the I fund's good showing. Remember, a weak dollar means that the I fund shares you hold (which are presumably valued in foreign currencies) will be worth more “lower value� dollars as the dollar drops compared to foreign currencies. HOWEVER, we mustn’t forget our investing fundamentals here – are the foreign stocks that make up the I fund performing really well or is the rise we have been seeing just due to the dollar dropping? I dunno but I will look into it.

US currency is probably stretched for the short-term,but how low can it go? If it goes to $1.40 to the euro, we can invest appropriately. If the buck drops to a $1.80/euro there are bigger problems that I don't even want to think about. Late-comers to this I fund rally could be buying BOTH an overbought set of global stocks (as covered by the I fund portfolio) AND an oversold US dollar. What this means is that a combination of a dollar rally in conjunction with a fall* in foreign stock prices would aggravate and accelerate losses in the I fund’s share price.


* It is worth noting that EFA is heavily weighted to Banks & Financial Services firms. If Greenspan keeps increasing interest rates “at a measured rate� as promised, other central banks could follow suit. Yield curves around the world would flatten and flat yield curves cut deeply into bank and brokerage profits.The I fund share price would drop like a rock.

smedlap Thank u gentleman

Not to chevy I-fund for me in the bounce get lucky again

Hey folks

A friend of mine talk me that, take an eye in january he hear
a rumor that january market will go down the hill.So let see
if some body has any information about it.The guy who talk
to me, he call him self as a market master It's funny but he
is very good .Three month ago he recomment me to stay
put 10-c 30-s 60-i unstil the rest of the year.And he advice
me to not put all in one basket, can be to dangerous if I dont
have a cue of what I'm doin.so at last he advice me again
not to get to cue on january.I respect him a lot. I'm not in his
level of knoledge about market.He don't guarantee what he
said but he will take some out of the tablejust in case.


It jus a rumor ,not panic ok let find out
That's all folk

Safetyguy wrote:

Remember, a weak dollar means that the I fund shares you hold (which are presumably valued in foreign currencies) will be worth more “lower value� dollars as the dollar drops compared to foreign currencies.

This is true, however I'm not sure what your thought is here. Are you saying that as the dollar drops in valuean investor in the "I" fund would be exposed to a greater risk of loss in the eventual event that the dollarstarts to recover?
If so I would say yes, but if an investor can recognize when to sell off those shares they can avoid a lot of pain. If my investing strategy was buy and hold I would avoid the "I" fundright now.

HOWEVER, we mustn’t forget our investing fundamentals here – are the foreign stocks that make up the I fund performing really well or is the rise we have been seeing just due to the dollar dropping?

In general, I do not believe they are performing particularly well. But as the dollar drops in valuemany foreign stocksappear to bea better value asthose currencies are rising against the global standard, namely the dollar. Our twin deficits are not helping. Fundamentally, risk is increasing in terms of US investments by foreign inflows. And then there is the global imbalance. US consumers continue to spend, spend, spend while saving very little. In Euroland and Asia the opposite is happening. They are sitting on huge amounts of savings and consuming much less than we are. It is possible that if they start consuming more we could see a shift in market dynamics. In that case, those markets may becomethe catalyst that drives the global market instead of the US.

US currency is probably stretched for the short-term,but how low can it go? If it goes to $1.40 to the euro, we can invest appropriately. If the buck drops to a $1.80/euro there are bigger problems that I don't even want to think about.]

No doubt, a drop beyond $1.40/euro would make many more nervous than they might already be. It is important to note that our weak dollar policy is an attempt to reduce our trade deficit. By making our products cheaper on the open market we can export more. That's great for those businesses that compete globally. Unfortunately, some foreign markets are pegged to the dollar (China being a primary one) and is making it difficult for our administration to achieve their goal of increasing exports.

Late-comers to this I fund rally could be buying BOTH an overbought set of global stocks (as covered by the I fund portfolio) AND an oversold US dollar. What this means is that a combination of a dollar rally in conjunction with a fall* in foreign stock prices would aggravate and accelerate losses in the I fund’s share price.

Certainly possible.A dramatic reversal may notbe the most likely scenario. There are negative implications tomore countries than the US should this happen. We are the catalyst driving the global economy right now. Asia is loving it. They are export driven countries (who stay competitive in spite of a weak dollar). Europe on the other hand is suffering from a strong Euro and has not yet gotten its collective act together, but I think they are moving in the right direction. Supposedly, our twin deficits along with John Snow talking down the dollar are preventing a dollar rally. It seems to me we should see a rally coming if this is true.

* It is worth noting that EFA is heavily weighted to Banks & Financial Services firms. If Greenspan keeps increasing interest rates “at a measured rate� as promised, other central banks could follow suit. Yield curves around the world would flatten and flat yield curves cut deeply into bank and brokerage profits.The I fund share price would drop like a rock.

Like a rock? Perhaps, but I have a hard time seeing quarter point increases causing a violent reaction.Our administration is also trying to keep our economy moving. Too much ofan increase in interest rateswould eventually stall that effort. The fedknows that. It is a balancing act. Our prime lending rate isstill in negative territory so we can continue to raise rates "measurably" as AG says, without causing too much pain andkeeping inflation in check.

To be sure, this topic is much more complicated than the above dialogue conveys. I am not sure of anything with regard to the weak dollar. There are too many variables involved. Great comments Safetyguy :^. It will help keep us all thinking.

Coolhand,very well articulated with a fine mind. Safyman - thanks for your comments. My 2 cents - Japan yen will continue to drop. Euro will go faster to 1.4 to the dollar before the EU makes an attempt to intercede. I expect it to rise quickly as the market opens next week as Europeans remain on holiday skiing. Can't muster organized support or votes an prefer to vacation vice work. Global companies listed under EFA "are" excellent selections even if their foreign country GDPs and growth rates (less China and an improving Japan) are in the soup. This is why I fund has generally tracked S when the dollar did not fluctuate, and both led C fund. There are precarious waters in front of us probably 5 weeks out so we all need to be alert to make sure we as a group - are safely on the beach, and not trying to make the last play of the day! At least informed. My sack is full already, so I am already very appreciative of the site contributions and am prepared to run (in 5 weeks)!