Thread: I Fund for October 2009

Thursday EAFE final of +$0.1862
plus Thursday FV (previous day) of +$0.1800 = +$0.3662
plus Thursday FV (today) of +$0.1200 = +$0.4862
plus mystery money of +$0.0088 = +$0.4950 final

Friday EAFE estimate of -$0.1892
minus Friday FV (previous day) of -$0.1200 = -$0.3092
minus Friday FV (guess) of -$0.1000 = -$0.4092

Looks like CIT may follow LEH and Bear. I'm not sure yet. The financials STILL appear to be struggling. The basis for the entire market.

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/CIT-Gr....html?x=0&.v=6

About 18 months ago, they were trading at the 40-60 range. Now stock quotes for CIT are about 70 cents. In any case, it's probably going to affect the broader market.

I'll have to declare a loss on it before the year ends to offset some of my other gains for tax purposes.

Financials are a large percentage of the S&P, but the S&P is not the entire market. Not so much finance in the NASDAQ. Plus, CIT's been in trouble for a long while. They just were able to keep the water out of their hold better than Lehman and Bear. I don't think anyone's going to be too shocked if CIT goes down.

Of course here we are in the I fund, there's no CIT here, and it's going down anyway. CIT is not the lone issue.

No, it's not the lone issue. Nevertheless, even the I fund is highly exposed on the financial side. Failures of American banks drag down the whole market, even the financial institutions in Europe and Japan.

Are you guys optimistic about the I fund for the rest of the year?

I'm in the stand-by category. Right now, I'm at 98% G, and I'm willing to miss the boat should the I fund take off.

As Rumsfeld says "there are many unknown unknowns" in the equation for me to jump in with 2 feet. The volatile DOW (400 pt swing in the past 2 days alone), the uncertainty with bank failures, the collapse of the housing market, and the destruction of many investment banks in the past year leave me with far too many x's, y's and z's to make any statement either way. The additional question of the international dollar market also causes me some concern. Interest rates have been kept at unnaturally low levels as well. At the same time, banks are failing left and right.

Right now, all new money is going into the I and the long-term funds, so I'm not completely risk-averse. The long-term strategy would indicate accumulation over time, but I'm not willing to endorse any of the investment sectors right now. The EAFE is trading at the low 50's, but did get all the way down to the low 30's just a few months ago.

That being said, when I dumped out of I in mid-September, it hasn't changed an enormous amount, from that point. Unlike October of last year.

Your call. Your money. Your risk.

Friday EAFE final of -$0.1892
minus Friday FV (previous day) of -$0.1200 = -$0.3092
minus Friday FV (today) of -$0.2000 = -$0.5093
minus mystery money of -$0.0080 = -$0.5172 final