Your rationale makes sense to me. I originally thought of going to I COB Wednesday to give the OSM a chance to react to the rate cut. However, your way of thinking protects you better if the news isn't as "rosy" as everyone is anticipating. I will watch closely tomorrow as well.
A fool and his money ... soon part
Makes perfect sence. What about playing the S fund for fed rate cut day and jumping that day to the I find?? Opinions??
You could- but it's risky- because if the fed doesn't cut, and the markets tank, and overnight the markets tank more, you put yourself diving in to the downward spirial right at the beginning of the fall, and won't be able to get out until Friday.
Interesting dilema.
In to win? Or out to safety?
I'll be in to win.
I still have a dozen years till retirement, anyway.
According to Bloomberg:
``It seems that the Fed has no alternative'' but to cut rates this week, said Cyril Beuzit, head of interest-rate strategy at BNP Paribas SA in London. ``When you are so close to such an event, most of the time there is a lot of consolidation. There probably won't be a big move before the meeting.''
and
Fed funds futures on the Chicago Board of Trade imply a 92 percent chance policy makers will reduce borrowing costs by a quarter-percentage point to 4.5 percent at an Oct. 31 meeting and 8 percent odds of a cut to 4.25 percent.
I'm no expert by any means but those odds seem pretty good to me.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...d=azTAEzpzZUKk
None of them justify a rate cut, so we will probably get it.
I agree the I is the best move, but was planning a two day move for a rally carry over or -FV payback.
Heard an interesting stat on the radio:
The corporate income tax in the U.S. is 40% while the average corporate tax in the EU is only 24%.
This is interesting. Looks like the BOJ will have an announcement on the 31st also (Tuesday night/Wednesday morning), prior to the Fed. Which gives me another reason to be in the I fund for Wednesday.
But then there's this:The Bank of Japan is widely expected to keep interest rates unchanged at 0.50 percent at a policy meeting on Wednesday, when it will also release its twice-yearly outlook report on the economy and prices.
The Federal Reserve, which slashed its federal funds rate to 4.75 percent in September, is seen likely to lower rates by another 25 basis points at a two-day policy meeting that ends on Wednesday.
http://www.reuters.com/article/marke...4&pageNumber=2
The Wall Street Journal said on Tuesday without citing sources that a Federal Reserve interest rate cut this week is no sure thing and officials are not seriously considering a half-point reduction in overnight rates.
The article by Greg Ip, the Journal's Fed watcher who is known for sometimes reflecting the views of senior central bankers, said policymakers view this week's decision as a choice between a quarter-point cut to 4.5 percent and not moving at all.
http://www.reuters.com/article/marke...4&pageNumber=2
Fall of the Republic.http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VebOTc-7shU
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