350Z's I fund thread OCT 07

[SCHAGAN]

What's everyones plan?

I'm thinking I am going to take today's gain and hide until after the market digests the Fed's minutes.

[merlin]

Thanks for posting that.

Does everybody have their NEW account numbers ready at hand?

Have not received mine.

[350zCommTech]

What's everyones plan?

The dollar reversed and is now unchanged and heading back down again, so I'm still thinking I fund.

But the reaction in the currency markets suggest that they think the today's employment report is BS. I agree with them. So, the market could reverse later today. Perhaps a -FV? That would be nice...

[merlin]

Have not received mine.

Should I call Them today?

[350zCommTech]

I'm thinking I am going to take today's gain and hide until after the market digests the Fed's minutes.

Good idea, are you thinking that the reaction to the Feds minutes will be muted because of today's jobs number?

[Robo5555]

Should I call Them today?

I would call them....everyone got theirs where I work.

[tspgo_com]

What's everyones plan?

This is TSPGO's plan for the HR:

Thu 04/Oct 07 = For => Fri, Oct 5, 07 ==> Pointing to: S
Fri 05/Oct 07 = For => Tue, Oct 9, 07 ==> Pointing to: I
Tue 09/Oct 07 = For => Wed, Oct 10, 07 ==> Pointing to: I
Wed 10/Oct 07 = For => Thu, Oct 11, 07 ==> Pointing to: F/I
Thu 11/Oct 07 = For => Fri, Oct 12, 07 ==> Pointing to: I

and it comes from these sets of probabilities:

10/04/07 = For => 10/05/07 ==> F(2)57 ==> I(5)65 ==> G(7) ==> F(1)46 ==> S(6)72 Pointing to: S
10/05/07 = For => 10/09/07 ==> 0 ==> I(1)60 ==> S(5)51 ==> G(7) ==> I(1)57 Pointing to: I
10/09/07 = For => 10/10/07 ==> 0 ==> 0 ==> I(1)61 ==> I(5)74 ==> C(7)73 Pointing to: I
10/10/07 = For => 10/11/07 ==> 0 ==> 0 ==> 0 ==> I(5)74 ==> F(5)48 Pointing to: F/I
10/11/07 = For => 10/12/07 ==> 0 ==> 0 ==> 0 ==> 0 ==> I(1)57 Pointing to: I

[NyteTracker]

What's up with all the votes in Sentiment Survey; more than double the average.
I wonder if this will make it more or less accurate.
BTW it was way off last week with Sell and the market up over 2%(S Fund).

[James48843]

What's up with all the votes in Sentiment Survey; more than double the average.
I wonder if this will make it more or less accurate.
BTW it was way off last week with Sell and the market up over 2%(S Fund).

Tom made a change this week.

Previously- the survey was a small chart on the right hand side of his main page. AND/OR he mailed out an email asking you to participate in the survey. Normally he got between 350 and 400 people to vote every time.

Even though we got a lot of new visitors and members in the last few months, the number of people voting in the survey remained flat.

So tom thought it would be a good idea to try to expand the pool of voters, by placing the actual survey right dead center in his daily comments. Theroy was more people would see it then, and more people would vote.

It obviously worked.


Now, the only problem is.....will the data gained from double the number of people voting (and the ratios of bulls to bears, vs. return, etc), still hold up with the same consitency with 900 people voting,

as when it was just the 350-400 people?

that becomes the question.

[James48843]

Tom made a change this week.

Previously- the survey was a small chart on the right hand side of his main page. AND/OR he mailed out an email asking you to participate in the survey. Normally he got between 350 and 400 people to vote every time.

Even though we got a lot of new visitors and members in the last few months, the number of people voting in the survey remained flat.

So tom thought it would be a good idea to try to expand the pool of voters, by placing the actual survey right dead center in his daily comments. Theroy was more people would see it then, and more people would vote.

It obviously worked.


Now, the only problem is.....will the data gained from double the number of people voting (and the ratios of bulls to bears, vs. return, etc), still hold up with the same consitency with 900 people voting,

as when it was just the 350-400 people?

that becomes the question.

Another quick observation- the "sell signals" are frequently a few days to a few weeks ahead of the actual downturns. I use it not a a quick, hard, fast rule to follow, but rather as a signal to myself to pay much closer attention, and to be prepared to bail out if other fundelementals change.

It's more of a bright yellow caution light to me rather than a strict red light stop signal. I may just step on the gas and speed through the light, knowning that there may be an accident ahead to watch out for.

[NyteTracker]

Thanks James, and good observation.

[LimaFox]

Any estimates?