Thread: Monthly return rate - G

What kind of daily return is the G fund given now that interest rates have crept higher? Are we around 5% now? We should be.


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Based on yesterday's gain of 0.0103%, that's about 3.75% for a full year

Current Loan rate 3.625%

Annuity rate 3.950%

Originally Posted by James48843

What kind of daily return is the G fund given now that interest rates have crept higher? Are we around 5% now? We should be.

The interest rate for the G-Fund - and, in fact, Social Security Bonds - is set by a weird pension-like formulation. Kinda the way a floating annuity is set. It is not directly set by 'the market'. It should trail 'the market' as the FED rate rises. BTW, that could be a nice 'feature' for us greedy plutocrats. Let it ride up till it reaches the FED rate, buy in, and then enjoy as the fall is sticky.

I think the one we should be watching is our F-Fund. That is market set, but because it is a fund of bonds it is a big blah of a bunch of bonds at different stages in their maturity. It should rise till the average is higher than the FED Funds rate. Again, this may prove a boon to us 10%ers. Let it ride up, move lots of casholla in, and then smile as the higher interest bonds provide ongoing returns.

Right now, neither is good. G loses to inflation and F has yet to wash out the very low yield bonds. I think F yield is still only 4.76% and the weighted average maturity is over 8 years. It should be a couple of points higher than the FED rate.

*** WARNING: I've never been a bond guy. I am very much learning this stuff as we go along ***

Originally Posted by tsptalk

Based on yesterday's gain of 0.0103%, that's about 3.75% for a full year

I don't think that's correct, actually. It's not including daily compounding. It's probably closer to 3.9%. I'll try excel.

Originally Posted by Boghie

The interest rate for the G-Fund - and, in fact, Social Security Bonds - is set by a weird pension-like formulation. Kinda the way a floating annuity is set. It is not directly set by 'the market'. It should trail 'the market' as the FED rate rises. BTW, that could be a nice 'feature' for us greedy plutocrats. Let it ride up till it reaches the FED rate, buy in, and then enjoy as the fall is sticky.

I think the one we should be watching is our F-Fund. That is market set, but because it is a fund of bonds it is a big blah of a bunch of bonds at different stages in their maturity. It should rise till the average is higher than the FED Funds rate. Again, this may prove a boon to us 10%ers. Let it ride up, move lots of casholla in, and then smile as the higher interest bonds provide ongoing returns.

Right now, neither is good. G loses to inflation and F has yet to wash out the very low yield bonds. I think F yield is still only 4.76% and the weighted average maturity is over 8 years. It should be a couple of points higher than the FED rate.

*** WARNING: I've never been a bond guy. I am very much learning this stuff as we go along ***

My financial advisor has moved me into short term bonds over the last 9 months because of the interest rates. I'm guessing he will be moving me out of these bonds before the end of the year. Off the top of my head, I don't remember the interest rates. I'd have to go look it up.

Higher bond yields make it much easier to support a desired lifestyle in retirement. Once you have enough, why take unnecessary risks?

G Fund at 3.9% is the best its been all the way back to the 2008 collapse.

https://www.tspfolio.com/tspgfundinterestrate

Originally Posted by tsptalk

I don't think that's correct, actually. It's not including daily compounding. It's probably closer to 3.9%. I'll try excel.

I calculated 3.83% if we assume the compound frequency is everyday including weekends, 365 days.

Originally Posted by Bullitt

Higher bond yields make it much easier to support a desired lifestyle in retirement. Once you have enough, why take unnecessary risks?

G Fund at 3.9% is the best its been all the way back to the 2008 collapse.

https://www.tspfolio.com/tspgfundinterestrate

With that said, do you advocate the F-fund over the G-fund to hold cash not invested in stocks while investing for retirement?

Originally Posted by tsptalk

Current Loan rate 3.625%

Annuity rate 3.950%

Thanks.

Ever since they changed the G fund makeup a few years back it’s been underperforming what it used to do. It used to be about the same as a percent higher the 30 year treasury. Now it’s always less than that- more like a fraction over the 30 year treasury.

But 3.65% isn’t that bad for a safety fund.
It’s better than it has been for a couple years.

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It's worth allocating to all funds for diversification purposes. My TSP bond portion is proportionally 70% G and 30% F, so yes, I overweight G.

G operates more like a money market fund, but you can't get a bond fund like G anywhere else that's government backed.

As we've seen since 2020 in the bond market, F carries market risk. It has been a disastrous two years for any newly minted retiree drawing down their bonds (or stocks) to provide income. Usually that's not the case in a stock bear market, but we've also been in a bond bear, and that's a problem. The problem won't manifest itself for 15-20 years down the road though as those funds sold at a loss today will never have the chance to recover in the long run.

Unfortunately, TSP does not allow you to pick what fund you'd like to draw from. Ideally, you'd have wanted to draw from G the past two years, then gradually start selling CSI during the bullish times to get back to that target asset allocation. This is one good reason to export your TSP to an actual brokerage firm.