I am kinda thinking we get a repeat of August this month in bonds. Your prediction for October sounds about right. I expect a lot of volatility this month, both bonds and stocks. I don't think it will be a smooth ride in either.
I predict .75% average over September and October 2011. QE2 Has yet to be unwound. The FED has pledged to keep yields low until 2013. Treasuries will continue to be a flight to security for the time being. Also, check out the chart I compiled.
Month Return Month Return Sep. 2004 0.26 Oct. 2004 0.83 Sep. 2005 -1.07 Oct. 2005 -0.81 Sep. 2006 0.89 Oct. 2006 0.67 Sep. 2007 0.75 Oct. 2007 0.96 Sep. 2008 -1.47 Oct. 2008 -2.18 Sep. 2009 1.1 Oct. 2009 0.39 Sep. 2010 0.06 Oct. 2010 0.31 Avg. 0.07 Avg. 0.02 Avg. Positive Months 0.612 Avg. Positive Months 0.632
That's my 2 cents. I am 95% in F fund until we shake out September's remaining volatility.
-E
Fund Trading Strategies and Economic Op-ed Articles By A Regular American
I am kinda thinking we get a repeat of August this month in bonds. Your prediction for October sounds about right. I expect a lot of volatility this month, both bonds and stocks. I don't think it will be a smooth ride in either.
All I know is we got screwed on FV today!
Does anyone know what the percentage of AGG that is owned by the F fund? Just curious. Anyways, my post is about Operation Twist. Operation Twist is going to lower our G fund returns a good bit more than they re right now. That being said, I think a lot of money will b squeezed out of short term trasuries and make it into other high grade debt that actually returns something.
I think this will make AGG look attractive, especially now that the AGG prices retreat a little with the spike in equities. If you get ahead of the FED we could see a nice monthly return in bonds. The question is when to get out. This Greek debt thing is getting a little unnerving. While the market rallied today with the news out of Europe. I think it is a set up for a huge drop only for the mega rich to get back in for the exchange of wealth.
-Emo
Fund Trading Strategies and Economic Op-ed Articles By A Regular American
Bonds have always given me the woolies - stick with the large cap C fund and I fund for further gains. We could easily bust right up through the recent bear flag and turn it into a bear head fake.
S&P500 (C Fund) (delayed) (Stockcharts.com Real-time) |
DWCPF (S Fund) (delayed) (Stockcharts.com Real-time) |
EFA (I Fund) (delayed) (Stockcharts.com Real-time) |
BND (F Fund) (delayed) (Stockcharts.com Real-time) |
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Yahoo Finance Realtime TSP Fund Tracking Index Quotes |
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