Thread: The State of the Economy

I see your DJTA chart every day on markets, usatoday, plus a lot of other markets.

I would enjoy your opinion on why the economy is so good, when others have the same, and different opinions. I know what they say about opinions... so tell me the facts behind your opinion?? Are we at a upper end, or are we at a breakout?

The presentuptrend of the market seems good! But are we in another cycle or doesthe upturnappear to be the upper end of the current bear market? This is where I ask for your indicators, facts, orwhat ever, cause, I don't know... However,I do know that moving averages (MA) say to stay the course in stocks, at present. The current MA cyclic trend tends to be bullish. But I also know howfragilethe market is, with the 6 month trend sloping down (bearish). Pray tell, the future,what are your indicators (information), please elaborate??????

Anyway, according to the latest upswing MA from the low of August 12 2004, to the current highs, my allocationwas0-0-35-45-20, now changed, or tweeked to 0-0-30-45-25, based on the proportional averageof increases from the C-S-I funds since 8-12-04. So far, they have held a profit, following the MA. Would you suggest a change, if so, why?

Enjoy your comments! Have a good week!

I won't say it's tremendous, but it isn't bad.

Here are some reasons for ya:

Inflation remains low, the unemployment rate fell and is now about the same as it was in the fall of 1996 when Clinton ran on a good economy, interest rates - though rising - are still very low, and GDP growth is steady (not spectacular mind you, but still decent).

Last but not least, oil prices are falling. We might see prices below $40 per barrel in the not too distant future.

I'd say we're not doing too badly all things considered.

Spaf,

That is a breakout. I own the Ishares and FEDEX. If you follow candlestick the transports is showing substained upside moving forward.

MT

Good.....good.....good. I have my fingers crossed. Will feel a lot better when S&P is above 1140. It looked like the economy was trying, but ever time it tried to climb it just couldn't get a good hold. Oil and other factors caused it to lose it's grip. Hopefully it's got a good foot hold.................. Thanks for the comments!