50% is about as high as any of those forecasters will ever go. High enough to be right, low enough to say they never called one if if doesn't happen.
In 2008, the announcement came December 1 and the market bottomed three months later. By June 2009, we were higher than December 1. Waiting until the all-clear in September wasn't a bad move long term, but you did miss out on quite a share of the gains.
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https://www.brightonjones.com/blog/m...ng-recessions/
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