Re: Corn and Ethanol.
Originally Posted by
James48843
That price spike had nothing to do with the renewable fuel standard. Pardon my French, but any inference that RFS caused the price spike is pure bull. Ethanol is cheaper than gasoline. Period. And should continue to be, from here on out. We've past the tipping point. It will Never be more expensive than gasoline, unless there is some massive disruption , like a major drought. Even if that happens, it will only be temporary.
I said there was an unnatural bubble in the price of ethanol- and no reason for it, on March 31- a day when it hit $2.85 a gallon.
And lookie there- it dropped like a rock shortly after.
Yep- no reason at all that ethanol was above $2.25.
Note- it should stay much less than gasoline through the summer.
Took you almost a month to reply to the post. Waited that long for the price to sort of even out to try and say,"I told you so!"? Typical.
This had everything to do with the mandate. Around 85% of the U.S. population lives within 100 miles of an ocean or gulf. How many terminals or pipelines has Archer Daniels Midland built or paid for? Zero. The ethanol industry got that taken care of with the RFS mandate requiring the oil companies to blend the ethanol in with gasoline. Roughly 80 years of spending on infrastructure gone into the oil industry and the ethanol producers get it for free. Pretty sweet deal, huh? Ethanol might "work" in the midwest (rail costs less the less distance you ship -- duh!!!!) but not out to the coasts where the majority of americans live.
About your little chart up there. When there's a shortage you don't price things a month out, you have to live in the now. The refiners and distributors couldn't get the ethanol to blend in so they had to pay spot price, which you ignore -- either intentionally or through ignorance. Ethanol spot prices in some places were over $4/gallon and here on the Gulf Coast it got to $3.64 (alot more than gasoline spot) but, as they said in Goodfells, "F&*ck you! Pay me!" we got the mandate -- gas cannot be sold most places unless it's 10% ethanol. Perfectly good gasoline sitting in storage can't be used because of no ethanol to blend. The very definition of false demand. Think this won't happen again? HA!!! The oil industry has to pay for the new transportation costs of ethanol to the population and guess who that cost gets passed down to?
Oh, ethanol will NEVER be more expensive than gasoline? That's not me on the other side of that bet -- it's the Old Testament Lord with plagues, locusts, floods and droughts. So, don't couch your statements with "unless there's some massive disruption" because that's the very nature of commodities (duh, supply and demand) and why you and ethanol backers don't understand the true costs of the energy industry.
Ethanol is getting a free ride because of the mandate and therefore is not fully priced because that tab is being picked up by the refiners and producers of oil.
You can make price say anything you want it to -- you won't fool me because I know what it costs.
Which one of you nuts has got any guts? -- Randle P. McMurphy
... stupidity will always find a way. -- Nnuut
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