Thread: GDP - Gross Domestic Product

U.S. GDP fell at a 1.4% pace to start the year as pandemic recovery takes a hit

Gross domestic product in the U.S. declined at a 1.4% pace in the first quarter, below analyst expectations of a 1% gain.

Declines in fixed investment, defense spending and the record trade imbalance weighed on growth.

Consumer expenditures rose 2.7%, but that came amid a 7.8% increase in prices.

“This is noise; not signal. The economy is not falling into recession,” wrote Ian Shepherdson, chief economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics.

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/04/28/us-q1-gdp-growth.html

Originally Posted by tsptalk

U.S. GDP fell at a 1.4% pace to start the year as pandemic recovery takes a hit

Well, that's one quarter. Another one and it's an official recession. Most economists said we'd skirt a recession, or at worst see it in 2023.

I read this headline before I saw how the S&P 500 was performing today (+1.39%) and was surprised not to see it deep in the red. I guess tech earnings are a good distraction, or the market has a deep understanding that this is 'just noise'.

The early negative performance today by the DWCPF (S-fund) may be a better grasp of how the broad market feels about this, but even still the index is having a comeback and as of now has erased all of its early losses (+0.16%).

Maybe I'm being unreasonable in thinking this news is worthy of spooking a market that has already showed concerns that recession is plausible with the Federal Reserve's campaign to raise borrowing cost just underway.

It's that time of the quarter for stocks to run (see late Jan) but I wonder if there's some thoughts that the Fed may not be as hawkish with the negative GDP?

Originally Posted by TommyIV

I read this headline before I saw how the S&P 500 was performing today (+1.39%) and was surprised not to see it deep in the red. I guess tech earnings are a good distraction, or the market has a deep understanding that this is 'just noise'.

The early negative performance today by the DWCPF (S-fund) may be a better grasp of how the broad market feels about this, but even still the index is having a comeback and as of now has erased all of its early losses (+0.16%).

Maybe I'm being unreasonable in thinking this news is worthy of spooking a market that has already showed concerns that recession is plausible with the Federal Reserve's campaign to raise borrowing cost just underway.

I agree. GDP is awful and surprised market is not down. Maybe market sees bad news as good due to possibility Fed might not increase rate by .5%, and instead only increase rate by.25% increase...plus possibility that .75 for June will have low chance. The cynical side of me says everyone wants the market to go up to not let April have such great losses at end of month.

This was mentioned elsewhere n the forum, but for future reference I'll put it in the GDP thread:


GDP fell 0.9% in the second quarter, the second straight decline and a strong recession signal

Gross domestic product fell 0.9% at an annualized pace for the period, according to the advance estimate.

That follows a 1.6% decline in the first quarter and was worse than the Dow Jones estimate for a gain of 0.3%.

The decline came from a broad swath of factors, including decreases in inventories, residential and nonresidential investment, and government spending

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/07/28/gdp-q2-.html

Initial Estimate of Third-Quarter GDP Growth Is 2.1 Percent

On July 29, the first GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth in the third quarter of 2022 is 2.1 percent.

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/07/28/gdp-q2-.html

Originally Posted by tsptalk

Initial Estimate of Third-Quarter GDP Growth Is 2.1 Percent

On July 29, the first GDPNow model estimate for real GDP growth in the third quarter of 2022 is 2.1 percent.

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/07/28/gdp-q2-.html

I didn't see it in the attached article, maybe I missed it, but have it in this link:
https://www.forexlive.com/centralban...t-21-20220729/

Basically it means "recession", if there actually was any....is over.
Means get on the "BirchTree" Stock Buying Train....or be left watching the long trail of "Bull Manure" from it.

U.S. GDP accelerated at 2.6% pace in Q3, better than expected as growth turns positive

GDP, a sum of all the goods and services produced from July through September, increased at a 2.6% annualized pace for the period, according to the advance estimate. That was above against the Dow Jones forecast for 2.3%.

“Overall, while the 2.6% rebound in the third quarter more than reversed the decline in the first half of the year, we don’t expect this strength to be sustained,” wrote Paul Ashworth, chief North America economist at Capital Economics. “Exports will soon fade and domestic demand is getting crushed under the weight of higher interest rates. We expect the economy to enter a mild recession in the first half of next year.”

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/10/27/us-g...-positive.html

Briefing.com had a forecast of 2.9% but GDPNow was looking for 3.5%


U.S. GDP rose 2.9% in the fourth quarter, more than expected even as recession fears loom

Gross domestic product rose at a 2.9% annualized pace in the fourth quarter, slightly better than expected.

Consumer spending weakened from the previous period but remained positive.

A sharp slide in housing helped pull down GDP, while boosts in government spending and private investment aided growth.

Jobless claims fell last week while durable goods orders increased sharply in December, but mainly due to demand for aircraft.

https://www.cnbc.com/2023/01/26/gdp-...ears-loom.html

Economy Showing Strength in Early 2023 After Last Quarter’s GDP Gain Revised Modestly Lower

Commerce Department says output expanded at 2.7% rate in final quarter of 2022

The U.S. economy appears to be exhibiting strength early this year, after posting solid, but slightly weaker, growth at the end of 2022.

Gross domestic product, a broad measure of the goods and services produced across the U.S., rose at a 2.7% annual rate in the fourth quarter, adjusted for seasonality and inflation, the Commerce Department said Thursday. That was down from a previous estimate of 2.9% growth, and slower than the third quarter’s 3.2% growth.

$Pay site: https://www.wsj.com/articles/economy...nomy_lead_pos1